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• 21/06/13  – Leading Role  WON 15/8 -> 5/4
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This full trading service is now currently fully subscribed with a long waiting list.

Due to problems with bookmakers using this site to check horses we have bet and then limiting client’s accounts to ridiculously small bets I no longer publish results here and they are available only direct to members.

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June 25th

First year’s profits £300,551.00!

The New Profit Point Text Service completed its first year on 4th June  with  a staggering profit on the year of £300,551.00.

This was a magnificent performance and way,  way ahead of the targeted £100,000 profit in a year to £100 per point stakes.

Of course it’s got harder over the year both for the Service and individual clients as bookmakers have closed and limited clients accounts and now often slash the prices of the horses we bet as quickly as possible to try and defend their bank balances!.

Clients who joined last June have found many of their accounts have been limited. For example one senior trader who was betting £100 per point had to resort to using agents to get his bets on as all his bookies had cried “enough!”, and closed or massively limited his account.

The sad fact is that no matter how massive the bookmaker, even publicly quoted companies like Hills Corals Ladbrokes just haven’t the guts to stand up against anyone who is armed with Professional Information. There’s only one reason for that. they know from years and years of experience that they can’t win. They know the shrewd punters will clean them out so they limit their bets. Mug punters can have whatever they want.

Incidentally if you ever bump into anyone who tells you his bookie will lay him any bet he asks for (and he’s talking proper bets eg £100’s and £1000’s not tenners)  take him gently on one side and ask him if you can “borrow” his account for a while! it’s a great way of getting on!  But be careful, I’ve had more people than hot dinners tell me they can get bets on but when you put them to the acid test they invariably fail. Simply because they’ve never handled money for “live” horses before they just don’t understand the bookies will not lay them to large sums for more than a short period of time.

Ok let’s have a quick chat about May and June to date.

May 2009

May was the sort of month the bookies hope for. A series of bad results. Due in part to bad weather, awful rides by jockies and some very dodgy results which made some wonder if Mr Dopey had been active with his pills so badly did some short priced horses run!!

Yep it was an awful month. We lost 240 points or £24,000 at my normal stake of £100 per point. Ouch! Of course in the context of the year it wasn’t too bad as we were still up £296,451.00 at the end of the month. But whether you’re betting £1 a point and lose £240 (or more I suspect) it’s never nice to lose. You can imagine the looks I used to get coming home and being asked how I’d done on the month? When you tell friends you’ve lost a typical year’s salary in a month they look at you a bit odd! Of course the green and puzzled look in their eyes reappears  when you win a year’s salary in a month! It’s very amusing!

Punters are tougher than bookies!

Of course the sad fact is that as the punter we will experience longer losing runs than the bookmaker. that’s because bookmaker effectively bet odd on nearly all the time whereas we get odd to our money. So if you bet £100 at 3/1 the bookmakers is effectively betting £300 to win £100 at 1/3.

What that means is that staking is crucial. If you’re betting on any event at odds of say 3/1 then the chances of winning are approximately 25% and the chance of losing 75%. But TWO losers happens 56% of the time 3 losers 42% and 4 losers 31%.

For the bookie it’s the opposite. He’ll suffer a losing run of two less than half the time and he has a 70% chance of not suffering a losing run of 4 or more.

By staking sensibly you can ride out the losing runs and return to profit. The sure way to ruin is to escalate stakes after losing in some crazy retrieval system. You know the type. Double up until you hit a winner or add half the previous stake and so on.. All staking systems like that eventually lead to ruin because of losing runs.

The great thing about gambling professionally is it toughens you up mentally. you have to be able to handle the tough times or you just won’t last. In fact most Professionals have been skint once or twice (sometimes more!) But they made sure they learned from it, picked themselves up and re-entered the game a little wiser and a bit more cautiously.

And that’s why I advise bets in points. As you know I advise a minimum of a 1000 point bank. By staking in points it means you can calibrate the bet to your own bank.

So in May we had a drawdown of 240 points on the bank. For those that started in June 2008 their original bank had grown from 1000 to 4200 points. So while a 240 point drawdown hurts it’s not the end of the world.  It simply meant that profits had dropped from 3200 points to 2960.

What was unusual about May was that nearly all of our biggest bets went down. Several contacts expressed the view they had never seen so many bad or “unlucky” rides!!! It was certainly a time for reflection.  The following 9 bets alone accounted for over 100% of the losses on the month yet represented less than 10% of the bets! … Clasnacree , Dort Tranquille,  Gentle Mulla, Mohatashem , Incendo, Ottaman Empire  Just like Silk,  Masterofthehorse  and Alpha Tauri. And there were some very odd market moves late on for several of these.

There’s no point dwelling on it because things change quickly in racing and in fact it took only 3 weeks in June to get back all the losses and add a handsome £20,000 profit on top! You cannot keep good information down in the long run!

There were some good times in the month even though it was  a tough one.  Devil To pay a massive gamble landed at 4/1.  Other good priced winners, many of whom you’d find in the formbook included Rapid Water at 10/1, Sovereign Remedy at 4/1, Suroor at 11/1Braveheart Move at 9/2, Brief Encounter at 13/2 were all heart warming winners.  It was amazing that so many big priced horses we bet ran so well when the favourites ran so badly??  And several really big priced horse bet each way that placed returned good profits and would have made a big difference to the month round if they’d won.  For example  Delegator 2nd at 25/1 in the Guineas after bursting through with a winning run! … Doc Jones 2nd at 16/1, Mared 3rd at 11/1, Shibhan 2nd at 10/1

June 2009 to date ( 24th June)

How quick can it turn round in racing?

Try 10 days!

June started well and then we had more of teh bad rides and horses running badly. At our low point we slipped back to being just £280, 567.00 profit halfway through teh day on the 13th of June.

And then … WOW!

A Massive 7/1 winner in Royal Intruder and a big bet too, 15 Pts ew followed by another tasty 7/2 winner in Carribbean Coral saw us zoom into profit on the month. Then we hovered for a day or so before booting home  4 winners on the 16th including yet another Antepost winner with Mastercraftsman.

The profits just poured in then with great wins on jenny Potts at 7/1 Jealous again at 12/1!!! (almost like an antepost beta s we bet him the night before) and Forgotten Voice who stormed home in a super competitive handicap and made the rest look like carthorses. Definitely a case of a “Group horse masquerading as a  handicapper!” at 4/1

And if that wasn’t good enough we followed up with another 12/1 winner In Silver Grecian last Saturday and we were so so close to landing a stunning each way double with Pytheas and Imperial House.  Pytheas was 2 lengths clear in the last furlong, trading at huge odds on in running and just got caught close home. That one defeat alone cost us  97 points on the double and a further 52 point swing on the single. We were so close to an additional 149 points profit on the month. One race alone which would have cleared almost the whole of May’s losses by itself!

The profits have continued to climb and climb and 3 winners out of 3 bets on Tuesday at 7/1 4/1 and 5/2 certainly brought a smile to my face and finally wiped out the memories of our poor spell. You know making a living at racing would be so easy if it weren’t for the losing runs. My ex used to say to me “why don’t you just back the winner and leave the losers alone?!” … Gosh I wish I knew how to but sadly the losers are here to stay and are part and parcel of winning at racing.

May I digress a little? Losers are really upsetting, hurt your wallet and hurt your heart. But  if you only ever bet horses that are 110%, that have no doubts at all, and you know every other horse is useless or not trying .. then you’d be betting huge odds on all the time. You wouldn’t get many bets and you’d be betting £1000 to win £100. It’s just not viable.

On average I reckon we’ll hit around 30% winners. Less if we bet big priced horses eg  4/1 and over, more if we restrict ourselves to favourites at 6/4 or less. I know that because that’s what professional punters hit year after year. And the reason is obvious when you think about it. To get better prices there has to be some doubt about the horse. If it was an obvious sure thing  the bookies would give you such a ridiculous price you wouldn’t bet.

If you know  a horse is fit and well, but it’s had an absence and so the bookies aren’t sure you might get an extra pint or two on the price. Or if it’s trying a new trip and so there’s a doubt if it will stay … but you know from it’s breeding it’s highly likely it will … once again you’ll get better odds than you expect. Or you know or can see  it hasn’t been trying in its last few runs and “today’s the day”. ONce again you get bigger odds than you should.

These factors don’t make the horse win. But they do increase its chance of winning. If a horse has been waiting for fast ground say … and the trainer has run it down the field on soft for the last 6 runs to get its handicap mark down … It may not win but it’s a bloody good bet!  We have to remember that every trainer is desperate to win as many races as possible. And all of them have their own little tricks to try and improve the chances of their horse winning. That’s why we’ll only bet around 30% winners. But as the figure show you can make a very handsome living at that level!

That’s what staking is so important. the most vital thing about this game is to STAY IN IT! To survive! If you lose your tank you’re out and then you can’t win.

Last month I lost one old client and a couple of new ones. You can imagine can’t you? The run we went through was horrible and they just got fed up and lost too much. The temptation is to bet too much when you’re losing and the secret is to keep you head. My maximum bet is 50 Points (or 50 points each way). I haven’t had a maximum bet for ages and you’ll notice all through the losing run we we’re betting mainly between 10 and 20 points. There’s no need to double up, triple up or some crazy lunacy like that. Just keep betting steadily solidly. sooner or later the winners will come and this last two weeks they’ve come with a  vengeance.

But what makes me sad is those clients who left when we were losing have not enjoyed the recent winners. One had been with me since the beginning. His winnings should have only dipped by around 10% (let’s call it 20% to allow for not getting the best prices) Instead he started chasing and lost the lot.

I share this with you because I want you to protect your winnings and not get carried away when we have the inevitable bad spell. Come to think of it don’t get carried away on a good spell either! When you’ve bet 3 winners on the trot it’s too easy to lump on the next. If I’m recommending 8pts 6 pts and 12 pts and they all win and the next bet is 10 points don’t go mad and have 50 just because you’re playing with the bookies money! That strategy will also lead to ruin because you’d then have lost an extra  40 points for no reason. Don’t think of any moeny as teh bookies money. think of it as your own! Treat it accordinly and spend the winnings on yourself, your family and loved ones not on stupidly increasing a bet just because you’re ahead.

I mention this now only because we are enjoying a Golden Spell and I want to make sure you keep a cool head, preserve your bank and enjoy the future winnings we anticipate. You can only do that by staying in the game so look after your bank! I know it’s tempting to increase stakes when we’r doing so well. But polease only increase them slowy in line with your bank. if your bank doubles by all means double your stakes per point. But don’t increase your bank by 10% and up your stakes by 100%! It’s highly unlikely to work out long term!

I’ll sign off now because I really need to start studying tomorrow’s racing.

All the best

Bob