Saturday 28th Dec

(Posted Friday midday)

LET IT RAIN…

There’s nothing easy about Saturday, particularly now the weather has had such an impact. Without looking for excuses in advance, it would be foolish for punters to bet as if conditions were normal. We may see some haphazard results.

At Chepstow in the Welsh Grand National at 2.35, where participants will need bottomless reserves of stamina and water wings, Merry King has always appealed as a likely candidate for this type of race. A step up in trip should suit; although, as mentioned, this will take a great deal of getting. Certainly not disgraced at Newbury in the Hennessy – a race that thus far is working out as well as could be expected – he competes here from the same mark and from the right end of the handicap.

Providing he copes with ground he has yet to face, Wilde Blue Yonder looks the clear form pick in the 3.25 and is hard to oppose. The novice he won at the last meeting has worked out particularly well, giving him the edge over main market rival, Stand To Reason who has to be feared, but will need to better an albeit comfortable Wincanton success to trouble Wilde Blue Yonder

BOXING DAY AND BEYOND…

This week – one of the most significant in the calendar – started with a tinge of sadness as we lost Chatterbox to a racing injury at Ascot and then, across the water and far away, came news that the legendary venue known as Hollywood Park had staged its last meeting. After an eleven-race program, commentator Vic Stauffer called time with the announcement: “Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes racing at Hollywood Park – the track of lakes and flowers. Good night.”

If it sounded somewhat trite, like a line from the Two Ronnies (And it’s good night from me and it’s good night from him), actually it was quite sombre.

Hollywood Park was one of the more picturesque of the American racecourses (of which, surprisingly there are not too many), and its passing, to make way for development, is symptomatic of modern cemented-over life.

Building more houses to make way for more people so they can produce more people on an already overcrowded planet seems to be the adopted mantra these days. Anyone heard the Joni Mitchell song Big Yellow Taxi and delved beyond her closing chortle?

The demise of Hollywood Park means the end of life as they knew it for all those that lived and worked there; those that held cherished memories of the likes of Seabiscuit, Citation, Cigar, John Henry, Affirmed and Zenyatta.

That’s progress they will tell you as the diggers assemble. Maybe they are right. Like the fine meal you had last night, once it is history, what difference does it make? A new generation can hardly miss what it never had. Sometimes it seems the world is beyond one’s grasp; that those calling the shots were never interviewed for the position they assume and therefore have dubious qualifications to hold it.

I realise all of this grumpiness and pathos is hardly appropriate for the season. One of the benefits of writing is that you can say what you wish. So long as it passes the edit it gets printed or blogged or exhibited on YouTube for others to smirk at. So sometimes you just feel like saying what is on your mind and to hell with the consequences.

I realise I should be wishing you all a great Christmas and hoping your turkeys (if you’ve managed to procure one) cook to a golden brown and accompany the Rioja and sprouts like everything was matched in some celestial place; but, if it’s all right with you, I shall leave that to others. I am sure you are not short of greetings. It seems to me one more proclamation of all good things from a complete stranger may be enough to send some of you over the edge. Or, once again, is that just me?

In recent years an aunt that has hitherto never shown the slightest interest in my welfare has started sending me a card. I say a card, actually it is little bigger than a square of toilet paper. It makes me wonder what possesses people to send infinitesimally small cards in the first place.

I mean, if it is matter of finances, my advice to them would be to cut out a yearly card and send a half-decent one every three years.

It is the same with presents. Surely the point of them is to show you have given the process some thought and to provide someone you care for with a gift they would perhaps like, but consider an indulgence and therefore would not buy for themselves. What thought goes in to grabbing any old pair of socks, chocolates, handkerchiefs or jumper before wrapping them up?

What it is with people dishing out instructions as to which presents they desire? You might as well just give them the money and tell them to get on with it. What about those that issue wedding-style lists?

What the racing powers that be have deemed to present us humble race goers with this Boxing Day is ten domestic meetings and three in Ireland. The Irish figure seems reasonable. The other one looks suspiciously like overkill.

However, Nature looks like having the final word. With more bad weather forecast between now and the weekend, chances are several venues will be more suited to staging water polo than horse racing.

Let’s face it, come Boxing Day Kempton is the only meeting of any import this side of the Irish Sea.

It is the equivalent of England against Argentina, more realistically, Arsenal against Chelsea (I know it ended nil-nil); why therefore does racing need its outposts to dilute an otherwise top class program? Sorry; silly me, I forgot – it’s all to do with the Levy and the turnover and punters losing enough money to finance the whole shebang and the man-in-the-moon.

So what about Kempton Park? London and its surrounding area is soaking wet and parts of it are battered and scarred and we have lost some trees, but otherwise the show goes on and it looks like conditions will be back to normal by Boxing Day.

The furniture stores will roll out last year’s sofas at greatly reduced prices, and you will be able to get a new kitchen at half-price and queue outside the big department stores to pick up sales bargains if you so desire. Life will resume. Huntingdon, Ffos Las, Wetherby, Sedgefield and Market Rasen will have to take their chances.

Kempton has not let us down. Vaniteux looked a very interesting recruit at Sandown earlier in the month and gets a chance to confirm that promise in the 12.50.

He faces a classy opponent in Dubai Prince, last seen on the Flat when beating none other than Side Glance in a Group 3 at York. He was then trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni – the Susanna Reid of the Godolphin operation.

There is however the not inconsiderable matter of eight flights to negotiate now. Undoubtedly capable of taking high rank over timber, Dubai Prince won on the steal at Leicester on his introduction, but Vaniteux’s race at Sandown looked to have more depth to it. He also won in a faster time; albeit that may now be negated by a 3lbs differential.

Even so, the phrase, ‘horses for courses’ was designed for an occasion such as this. Although Vaniteux would not be capable of blowing up Side Glance’s rotund bottom on the Flat, this is not Flat racing and I prefer his chance.

Two potentially decent chasers line up for the handicap chase that follows at 1.25. I always find it odd that horses without steeple-chasing experience are eligible to take part in a handicap – a situation that surely urges punters towards caution, something that can never be good for the Levy or turnover.

The fact remains that Urbain De Sivola and Western Warhorse could easily be ahead of their rivals here, but until we see them jump a fence we won’t know. Paying to find out is invariably expensive.

Just A Par looks like being odds-on in the next at 2.00. Granted a clear round he should win, although there are surely better ways of trying to finance Christmas expenses.

The assumed match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours adds more than a sprig of extra holly to the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle.

At the prices it is hard to differentiate between them. Racing is not a game of football. Whatever your leanings here, it is not essential to support one or the other. On all known information it is tempting to assume My Tent Or Yours may have a touch more speed on a sharp track like this, but one fluff at a hurdle or one moment’s hesitation when it matters could change all that. Surely the sensible course of action (unless you are in possession of a scoop about one or the other) is to watch this from the bottom of a glass.

But the King George VI Chase looks a different matter, at least to me. You see, I feel I know the winner of this, and am confident I can discard several in the field.

Firstly, Al Ferof is a doubtful stayer. There is one in this race every year and 2013 is his turn to be it. Even if he does stay, his jumping is hardly bombproof. Inclined to take a chance with his fences, he looks a very unlikely winner to me.

Cue Card’s claims largely rest on his win last time in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Whilst he could be a revelation now he is switched to three miles, he flopped in this last year and normally this is an event you only get one shot at.

That remark could prove to be an expensive generalisation; but, whilst wishing the Tizzards and all who sail therein all the best, the dangers of backing horses on the strength of one run is well documented.

Therefore, Dynaste, who has won four out of his six races over fences and finished second in the other two, lays a less complicated record on the line. This sharp three miles will suit (he is already a winner of the Feltham round here) and although beaten by Cue Card last time, gave the indication of blowing up at Haydock. This is his chance to step into the big time.

Silvianiaco Conti has an each-way chance but surely no more, whilst Riverside Theatre has already achieved one miracle victory this year. Although miracles are popular around Christmas, they are normally carefully rationed.

Last year’s winner, Long Run, is surely similarly dependent on an intervention of divinity. Even the application of blinkers – the last tool at the bottom of the box – look unlikely to help him win one of the most fiercely contested renewals in recent years.

So this is Dynaste’s race to lose. I suspect he will start favourite come the hour, and nominate him as the sole bet on the card.

Those of us in trouble come the last – a Class 3 handicap hurdle run at 3.45 – will need to adjust to the condition, as this race is unlikely to change it for the better. A losing afternoon’s betting is not the best way to end the Christmas holiday I know, but they are the rules players have to accept.

And for those of you watching one or two of the old films over the period; as Scarlett O’ Hara will say at the end of the marathon that is Gone With The Wind: “Tomorrow is Another Day”. Humphrey Bogart will add his tuppence-worth when uttering the immortal, “Here’s Looking At You Kid,” and, “We Will Always Have Paris,” later on Christmas Day, maybe they have a point.

In the meantime, stop now if you would prefer to be spared another seasonal greeting.

No, I can’t bring myself to do it. Have a Happy Dynaste!

SATURDAY DECEMBER 21st

ASCOT TIPS

3.35:

As you would expect for the prize-money, this is a tough handicap with plenty of possibilities.

Nicky Henderson fields two with real chances in the improving Rolling Star and Chatterbox.

Despite Barry Geraghty’s apparent preference for the former, Chatterbox shaped really well last time at Newbury after a well documented setback and could easily turn out to be the better of the two at these weights. Certainly his chance does not need arguing based on last season’s form. He is seen as holding the best chance of those at the top of the weights as improvement from Newbury is likely.

Flaxen Flare probably has a few pounds too many but should run a race.

Fellow Irish raider, City Slicker has to be respected but, with only limited hurdling experience, faces a stiff task against much better company than he has so far encountered.

Dell’ Arca is another dark horse that is raised 8lbs for his Greatwood win and could easily make his presence felt. Of those lurking at the foot of the handicap,

Totalize has been granted an opportunity by the handicapper with a mark of 131. Relative inexperience in such a cut and thrust handicap is something of a concern but he does have a chance at the weights (particularly with Flaxen Flare after a decent effort at last year’s Festival). He should be fit from a recent Flat outing and would surely not be making the journey south if less than match-fit or not carrying a modicum of stable confidence.

Flying in the face of common sense, Chatterbox may lift this, whilst a prominent showing is expected from the stoutly-bred Totalize.

LINGFIELD TIPS

2.35:

It seems fair to say Gatewood has not progressed since a highly encouraging return to action in this country at Doncaster in September.

He is capable of winning this but it is becoming a long time between drinks for him. Sure be thereabouts, he has most to fear from a possibly revitalised Tales Of Grimm, who got no run here last time. Once again the draw has not been kind to Tales Of Grimm, but with a reasonable slice of luck in running he rates a big danger.

CHELTENHAM

FRIDAY DECEMBER 13th

(posted Thursday 5.30pm)

12.30:

All things being equal this looks like a two-horse race. Oscar Whisky made a satisfactory fencing debut here last month in a muddling race won by Tarquin Du Seuil.

As he receives 8lbs from his main rival, Newbury winner Wonderful Charm, it is tempting to believe that may make the difference.

These two are chalk and cheese. Wonderful Charm is more of a chasing type that may lack the class of Oscar Whisky, but there is the small matter of the fences threatening to even the contest out. With bookmakers sure to bet tight, there is little percentage in punters’ favour.

1.05:

It is a struggle to uncover an obviously well-handicapped runner here, although two that have raced in Ireland look to have possibilities. Both Friendly Society and Hit The Headlines have chasing experience and may be capable of better than we have seen.

2.10:

Theatre Guide looks a reasonable selection having put up such a giant effort in the Hennessy a fortnight ago. His claims are obvious and providing the run does not come too soon after his Newbury exertions, he is hard to get away from.

3.45:

The card ends as it starts with a novice event, this time seemingly resting between three candidates in previous winners and therefore penalised: Ballyalton, Doctor Harper and Garde La Victoire.

The last named was very impressive last time at Warwick when sauntering away from previous winner Gone Too Far. There seems no reason why we should not take that run literally, in which case Garde La Victoire is taken to shade what should be an informative event.

SATURDAY

DECEMBER 7th

(posted Friday 5.45pm)

It seems we have made it to the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown without incident. Despite Russia’s best attempt at sabotage via a severe mid-week weather front sweeping in from Siberia, the worst is behind us – at least for now.

Staying with the Soviet theme, as always this is a good meeting full of quality and intrigue, but its twists and turns are possibly more suited to a John Le Carre Cold War novel.

1.50:

Taquin Du Seuil lays Arkle pretensions on the line in the Henry VIII Novice Chase.

A determined winner at Cheltenham last time from Oscar Whisky, he gets a chance to take this next step up the ladder.

Second in this event last year to Captain Conan, Hinterland is certainly useful but has not progressed beyond that standard and threatens to be vulnerable once again.

Grandouet, notably a hurdler, needs to improve his jumping to become competitive in this company, whilst well regarded Balder Succes is hard to assess and could be anything.

One mistake could change the complexion of this but, assuming Taquin Du Seuil jumps with the same aplomb as we saw at Cheltenham last time, he looks like the one to beat.

2.25:

After his latest run in a competitive Cheltenham event won by handicap blot Quick Jack, Deep Trouble looks poised to go one better in this listed handicap. He faces several rivals with progressive profiles but looks sure to run his race.

3.00:

The Tingle Creek should only concern Sire De Grugy and Captain Conan, both of whom have won over fences on this track. Talk of Somersby being able to mix it on these terms at this level has so far proved wide of the mark. The same is likely to be the case again. For some reason Sire De Grugy never looked at ease last time at Cheltenham, risking life and limb with some chancy leaps in the closing stages when second to an on-song Kid Cassidy.

From a stable in form, he has every chance but does have two lengths to find on Captain Conan on their running in the Arkle Trial run at Cheltenham this time last year. It promises to be a tight contest.