SPY STEPS OUT OF THE SHADOWS

SPIRIT OF THE LAW becomes his first runner from the lucrative Notebook feature, winning at AYR on Monday at odds of  7/2

This follows Saturday’s advice for Ahtoug at 11/2 – a strong word for Homeric at 9/2 [Broxbourne nominated as a big danger] – and a suggestion that War Command was an opposable 2/5 favourite in Sunday’s Group 1 feature at the Curragh.

Can you afford to be without his comments and advice in his free feature on this site?

see the Notebook tab above.

A RANT FROM Mr ANGRY…

(That’s Spy … not Bob!)

I thought I would write this while my tail is up. Also, today, (Tuesday) is a non event for me as far as racing is concerned.

I have touched on the subject of information before and felt the need to do so again – if only because, judging by the quality of many messages doing the rounds, some of you out there need protection.

If you think that sounds drastic or that I am over-hyping my importance, I ask you to hear me out.

Racing is awash with rumour and counter-rumour, whispers and half-truths. Some so-called Derby or Royal Ascot contenders in May are still maidens ploughing their way round Pontefract in September. We have heard the whisper that such-and-such yard has a better filly than the one that has just won the Cherry Hinton. Last year a notable Charlie Hills insider was busy telling me Just The Judge was only ordinary. He persisted with this right into autumn, despite my claims to the contrary based on evidence my own eyes provided. Far too many message-carriers give the impression of being in possession of the facts in question when only knowing half the story.

Frankly, these big mouths annoy me intensely. They seem to believe their kudos is such that they only have to mention the name of a horse for the rest of us to scuttle off in search of a bookmaker naïve enough to accept our money. If they know so much, why do they never seem able to answer the most obvious of questions?

Inside information is desirable; surviving without it in this business is difficult. I can live without it most of the time, but if someone is going to pass me a message – particularly if I have chased it up because of an interest in the race in question – I want the answer to be credible. I don’t just wish to be told the John Cleese (bleedin’ obvious). So would-be purveyors of such information – take stock: If I ask a question about a horse, don’t respond with the working-well-looks-a-million-dollars nonsense. I assume any horse deemed worthy of taking part in a race (unless it is not off) is working well enough to justify a place in the line-up. Let’s take it as red the horse looks well and is working adequately shall we?

How is it that once asked the salient question that is not readily available, these so-called informants don’t know the answer. If the horse hasn’t run for two months, I would like to know why. That’s when there is a lengthy and heavy pause. Actually, that is why I am asking in the first place. I know the horse can win if returning to that run at Ascot when beaten a neck in a sixty grand handicap – that ain’t what I want to know.

I want to know where it’s been since May. On its holidays? Been on jury service – had an offer of a screen test in Hollywood for a Seabiscuit remake – has there been a bereavement in the family?

Racehorses aren’t normally prevented from racing by design. Normally such an absence is a sign something has gone wrong – the plan has shifted from the A variety to the B version – flagging up a danger signal.

Look, if a city dealer told me to buy shares in, let us say, Talk Talk without stipulating why, I might take note, but keep my hand in my pocket. If he told me Talk Talk was about to take over Orange, now that would be a different matter. Obviously, such a move would mean an increase in Talk Talk shares and, armed with the full facts, I am now in a position to make a considered judgement.

Similarly, if wishing to know a piece of inside information on a horse, that is what I am after not a scrap of tittle-tattle I can read in the newspaper the next day. Okay, I accept a good deal of so-called information is a combination of what is doing the rounds in the pubs in Newmarket and Lambourn, or what the work riders swopped over breakfast after a morning’s gallop. That means it might be part fact, part opinion and part optimism. It can be useful but it is not the last word. It is merely a view based on a better set of facts than those available to the man just leaving his bathroom in Maida Vale.

I have been in this business long enough to risk upsetting people. I would rather upset them than waste my money on a half-chance. I can pick those out myself! As a result, I am not afraid to ask the hard questions, even if those supplying their version of the answers take umbrage when I cast doubt on their version of events.

You might deduce from this tirade that I have recently fallen victim to a Chinese Whisper of the most expensive kind. Actually, I have not but only because I was able to outsmart the messengers, all of whom thought they knew something yesterday that in hindsight they did not.

What they did was to take a collective flyer. They took the evidence at their disposal and drew the wrong conclusions, largely because (1) they were too lazy to check the information presented to them and (2) because they wanted it to be true so assumed it was, making two and two into five.

I guess I should rejoice that I am cleverer than the average bear this game attracts. I hung up my ego on a hook a long time ago. And, to a degree, the more idiots that populate this business the better my chance of cashing in on their laziness and inefficiency.

The purpose of this is to suggest that those of you similarly exposed in the future take stock, ask the obvious and don’t get caught up in the euphoria before a race that so often turns into sourness afterwards.

Always remember it is your money; therefore, the final decision whether to play or not should be yours. Don’t get swept away by the rumour-machine. Those that operate it will be back the next day and the one after that. And isn’t it funny how they are conspicuous by their absence when they have relayed a bad message?

We are not supposed to shoot piano players or messengers. As far as I am concerned the first group is safe. The second better watch out …

note from Bob

Spy and I were not communicating regularly last summer and as you’ll recall our Hills man was max on Just the Judge when he won for us in Ireland!

Just serves to illustrate how many differing opinions there are in this game. As it happens I know Spy’s source he’s referring too. And he’s a solid man, good judge and you make money following him normally. Tricky game eh? But that’s what makes it fun and interesting!