GRAND NATIONAL DAY

SATURDAY APRIL 5th

It might be the Grand National but to the professional gambler it is just another horserace. As such it is treated accordingly.

Professionals dissect races they are interested in, reducing the field to those that in their opinions can win and eliminating those that can’t. Once they have stripped the field bare, they take a look to see if they can narrow it down further until they might be left with a handful of serious runners and hopefully the winner.

To do this the professional assessor has to take an opinion and not to be frightened to be wrong. Remember, the man who is worried about being wrong is very often never right. Fence-sitting is for politicians and civil servants.

So herewith my own version of Saturday’s big race: The Crabbie’s Grand National.

Forty are scheduled to line-up, which may include one or more of the four reserves. With the chances of many of the runners looking remote at best, let’s see if we can turn forty into ten. To do this we have to adopt a ruthless approach, but it can be done and result in a pot of gold. After all, a ten-runner horse race where bookmakers are offering 8/1 the field drastically shifts the odds in favour of the punter.

These are the runners from my viewpoint, and you may be surprised by some of the exclusions.

TIDAL BAY:

Has to buck age and weight trends to win. Carrying top weight of 11st 10lbs and at the age of thirteen, he faces a Herculean task – but since joining the excellent Paul Nicholls he has seemed better than ever.

Gone are the moods, the tantrums and the quirky traits that for so long made him a dubious betting proposition. A colossal effort under top weight in the Welsh Grand National in December was followed up by an honourable second in Ireland in a Grade 1 early in February. Rested since, he cannot be disregarded. The most likely scenario is that he will finish in the first six but that his weight will anchor him. Even so, he will expose weaknesses in many of his rivals.

LONG RUN:

Is the one horse in the line-up that will have us muttering in our beards – and beers – how obvious it was when he wins.

As a dual King George and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner that is only nine and runs from a lower mark than when he rattled up the first of those Kempton wins in 2011, the handicapper has opened the door for him now.

Representing the all-powerful Nicky Henderson stable, he can be relied upon to have been well prepared for this task. Although his jumping is not always bombproof, he will have been schooled over replica Aintree fences at home and is the sort to rise to the occasion.

His excellent rider emphasised his worth over these fences when winning the Fox Hunter Chase on Thursday and, granted a smidgen of luck and on this drying ground, he could be too classy despite his burden.

ROCKY CREEK:

Completes the trio of classy horses not normally associated with this event. Second in the Hennessy at Newbury in November on only the first of two runs this season, he should line up as a fresh contender that has been prepared with this in mind.

The ground will be ideal and, having never fallen in twelve chases, his jumping has already withstood the test of time. He may have a few pounds too many in the handicap but his class is undeniable and if he is one of three or four at the last, he is the one lesser rivals will have to pass.

QUITO DE LA ROQUE:

Holds more of a technical chance than a realistic one. But efforts here (in the Betfred Bowl and when winning as a novice) and in Ireland in top company suggest at his best he could go well. This is his time of year.

DOUBLE SEVEN:

Something of a dark horse that has progressed through the ranks in Ireland and is catapulted into the big time now. On what he has achieved his mark seems fair and he could easily surpass it. Two doubts remain. He has yet to prove he stays this far – a remark that applies to many – and his jumping can still be a little dicey at times. However, don’t let that put you off too much. This course has a habit of focusing the sloppy but talented horse and as the choice of Tony McCoy he could not be in better hands. Even so he is a bit of a guess.

BURTON PORT:

And talking of guesses, enter this one-time RSA second and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up, whose last win was in the Mildmay Chase here in 2010 when rated 152. Having slipped to a mark of 145, clearly a return to anything approaching that form would make him a blot at the weights.

The problem is, since then he has suffered a leg injury and, at the age of ten, he gives the impression the best is behind him. However a reasonable effort in a veterans’ event last time gives some cause for optimism for his supporters although he will need to find more now. Given his connections that is not impossible and success is not a total pipe dream.

PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE:

Another with a chance on his best form but that seems to be over the horizon and far away these days. However, he does have a dash of class if he can recover it (latest run suggests he is no back number) and would be dangerous if crossing the last alongside a bunch of camels.

LION NA BEARNAI:

Is another that will need to wind the clock back to win. However this former Irish Grand National has already shown he can grind it out when others are crying enough. Weighted to the hilt but ridden by a jockey at the top of his form, if it turns into an old-fashioned National going to the last man standing, one of the more likely ones.

THE PACKAGE:

Creeps in to this with an attractive weight and is another that could test his rivals if it turned into a slog from the last. Fell at the nineteenth here on his previous visit in 2010 and has a patchy record since. Lines up on the back of a decent comeback run at Cheltenham last month. Possibly a place is the best he could obtain, but on his best form does have a chance.

ROSE OF THE MOON:

Risky but credible outsider that could outrun his odds. He completed the course when running in the Becher Chase in December so may be capable of making some sort of impact at these weights.

That is my shortlist, which excludes several currently fancied runners. Why?

Let’s take Teaforthree. He was third off a 3lbs higher mark last year, but has not won in his three runs since – admittedly including a run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when out of his league. However, this year’s race is potentially a much better renewal than last year so he is unlikely to better his position now and could easily struggle to even maintain it.

Monbeg Dude is an old-fashioned staying chaser that peaked in December at Cheltenham in a Grade 3 handicap from an 8lbs lower mark. Life is tougher now and he has plenty to do with Teaforthree on old form. Balthazar King would be a popular winner for Richard Johnson but on his last visit here he burned himself out by tearing off too quickly. Again, his qualities seem confined to staying or cross-country events where the vast majority of his opponents are geriatric or slow.

I have attempted to include outsiders, but essentially I see the race concerning the class acts, who may dominate. Not all will cross the last in a line, but one of them at least is likely to slip the tangled net of misfortune and drama that could foil their bids.

Assuming I have highlighted the right ten runners, this is how bookmakers might price up the race should the other thirty not be taking part:

3/1 LONG RUN
4/1 TIDAL BAY
9/2 ROCKY CREEK
7/1 DOUBLE SEVEN
10/1 BURTON PORT
16/1 QUITO DE LA ROQUE
16/1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE
16/1 LION NA BEARNAI
20/1 THE PACKAGE
33/1 ROSE OF THE MOON

These odds are based on a 110% book. Okay, allow a few points on the prices for error and add or subtract at your discretion. But the value plainly appears to lie with the three market leaders: Long Run, Tidal Bay and Rocky Creek. Currently available at 14/1 or even a shade bigger for looking, Long Run is the selection.

Tomorrow is not solely about the Grand National, although, of course, for many it is the only race in town.

AINTREE: 1.30:

A cracking Grade 1 novice event kicks off the card. Over this trip of 2m 4f, Volnay De Thaix looks sure to improve. A tenuous form line through Splash Of Ginge suggests he may have something to find with Dell’ Arca; however, he has been brought along steadily for this event whereas it could be argued Dell’ Arca comes here after a busy campaign.

2.05:

Trifolium gets a chance for consolation for what was a big effort in the Arkle. His class shines through here and only an off day would prevent him beating lesser rivals.

2.50:

Racing gets distinctly harder after this, the last of the Grade 1 events at the meeting. Whilst At Fishers Cross lines up with solid credentials after a shaky start to the season, Whisper is the horse improving through the ranks. He has only a little to find on these rivals and can throw his hat into the ring with a massive performance now.

LINGFIELD

Exchequer should open his account in the 1.15. After three promising runs as a juvenile, including when second to Kingston Hill, this should be an ideal stepping stone on the way to better things.

3.40:

Barley Mow should win this but American Hope shaped well two weeks ago when a staying on second to the highly-regarded Ertijaal. This trip will suit and he has an improving profile and the right pedigree to test the favourite, who may be sharper on another occasion.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY TWO (Friday)

(posted Thursday 4.15pm)

2.00: International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices’ Hurdle:

Although never heralded as being at the top of the novice tree within the powerful Nicky Henderson camp, Josses Hill has quickly scaled the heights after his novice win, competing in Grade 1 company on his remaining two runs and finishing runner-up on each occasion. His second to Vautor in the Supreme Novices’ at Cheltenham is the best form on offer here and his habit of finding for pressure makes him the one to beat now.

Sergeant Reckless was only one-and-a-half lengths away in fourth at Cheltenham having made up a great deal of ground from an unpromising position. However, his habit of running in snatches may find him out round here. Art Of Payroll and Baltimore Rock are seen as bigger dangers.

2.30: Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices’ Chase:

Despite a small field, all six in the line-up have claims of sorts. RSA winner O’Faolains Boy takes a long time to warm up. As a hard ride that is invariably on and off the bridle, he may find this quick track far from ideal.

The progressive Holywell and Wonderful Charm (who can probably be forgiven an on the face of it below par run last time when hampered at Cheltenham) look less complicated rivals.

Many Clouds was never in a comfortable rhythm last time at Cheltenham in the RSA and that run is best overlooked. On the strength of his effort at Ascot when a two-and-half length runner-up to O’Faolains Boy conceding 4lbs he enters the reckoning once again.
A bold front runner, he will be suited by this track and a big run is expected. Holywell is taken to complete the four-timer. Although not without chances, Don Cossack and Just A Par look less likely winners than the remaining four.

3.05: Betfred Melling Chase:

Module and Rajdhani Express come here on the back of two excellent efforts at Cheltenham and both will have their supporters.

The question those looking to play here will have to ask is which run was the better: Module’s third to Sire De Grugy in the Queen Mother Chase over what looked like an inadequate trip, or Rajdhani Express’s third to Dynaste in the Ryanair?

Both will have to operate at maximum strength to win, but taken as an overall package Module has a more tempting profile and is the selection.

Although as a Grade 1 the composition of the field leaves something to be desired, the opposition makes up more than numbers and is not that far adrift from the standard set by the two principals. Once again, this is not a cut-and-dried event to solve.

3.40: Crabbie’s Topham Chase:

As always, run over the Grand National fences, we are presented with a knotty problem here. Currently bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field, which seems an accurate enough assessment.

Ma Filleule recovered with real spirit to come back from an error last time at Cheltenham when only going down narrowly to Holywell. Raised 7lbs since, she may still be able to propel herself into the firing line once more but this race is fiercely competitive.

4.15: Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle:

This trip of three miles will expose any stamina limitations. For that reason, having looked to find 2m 6f too far at Thurles last time, Giantofaman is bypassed. Beat That shapes as if likely to stay, whereas Capote and Seeyouatmidnight – both of whom have been saved for this meeting – have already won over today’s trip. Others enter the reckoning, making this a hard race to call.

The middle day of this three-day festival always threatened to be the hardest to crack and that is how it looks. Josses Hill and Module are nominated as the best chances on the day from this quarter but are not necessarily advanced as bets.

It is tempting to oppose O’Faolains Boy in the Mildmay. Holywell may provide the biggest danger but Many Clouds should not be dismissed lightly. And that is the metre of the day, which is constructed of races that are hard to solve in one hit. After a near miss with Diakali on Thursday, it looks like it is all to play for on Saturday…
Good luck with your selections.

GRAND NATIONAL MEETING

– DAY ONE (Thursday)

Here we go once again for the rollercoaster that is Aintree. With four Grade 1s on the first day card, backed up by two competitive handicaps and the hunter chase that is the Foxhunters, there is something for everyone…

2.00:

Injured Jockeys Fund 50th Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle: All eyes will be on Calipto here after a catalogue of disasters in the Triumph Hurdle. Beaten eight lengths at Cheltenham, his misfortune started at the second when he was impeded and was then compounded when a stirrup leather snapped at the top of the hill.

After the race most observers claimed he looked unlucky and would have arguably beaten Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete but for the intervention of bad luck.

Such thinking can be dangerous: time and again the form book has the last word; although, there is a suspicion that Calipto may re-write a part of it now. We shall see… Guitar Pete has run to a similar level all season and looks guaranteed to be in the mix once again.

A little over three lengths behind Calipto at Newbury on his hurdling debut, Actival has been saved for this. After his authoritative win in the Adonis at Kempton he is not far short of the best of his age and could be the biggest danger to Calipto. On the face of it the three mentioned appear to be the runners, although the improving Fox Norton could enter calculations. Whilst respecting Calipto, Actival looks the logical each-way alternative.

2.30: Betfred Bowl:

So often this event can throw up a surprise. Such a scenario looks unlikely this year as Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti stand out – the inference being one or the other must come out on top. Narrow preference is for Dynaste.

To a degree Argocat is the dark horse that is open to improvement. Even so he has plenty to find if he is to figure. The remaining three will need to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. Last year’s winner First Lieutenant is the scavenger waiting to steal the scraps. He invariably runs his race but can only be considered if the front two underperform; whereas neither Menorah nor Houblon Des Obeaux have shown form approaching this level.

3.05: Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

After Calipto in the opener, The New One is the second so-called unlucky Cheltenham loser to line up here. With a trip likely to play to his strengths, after the setback on Boxing Day at Kempton and the broadside he received in the Champion Hurdle, this is his chance.

Fearful of an avalanche of bets in his favour, bookmakers have priced him up as if he is a near certainty. As a result they have overlooked the wild card that is Diakali, who is available at a tempting 12/1 with Coral as I write and 9/1 elsewhere.

Surely these odds are out of kilter with the horse’s chance. The Willie Mullins representative ran a massive race at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle under top weight and his two-and-a-quarter length third to Jezki – over this trip – in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse gives him a strict chance with the favourite, who was almost three lengths behind Jezki at Cheltenham after his much publicised troublesome passage. Those making a case for anything else (including Rock On Ruby) are liable to be barking up the wrong tree. In what is seen as a two-horse contest, even allowing for the fact that any attempt to bet each-way is likely to be thwarted (excludes each-way multiple bets though) Diakali has to be the call at the prices.

3.40: Crabbie’s Fox Hunter’s Chase:

No doubt those acquainted with hunter chaser form can nominate each-way alternatives to the favourite here; but, granted a clear round, the decision to re-route Mossey Joe for this instead of targeting the Grand National is likely to pay its own dividend. He is not perceived as a betting prospect for those of us that don’t don red coats and breeches on bank holidays, but looks a solid favourite.

4.15: Silver Cross Red Rum Handicap Chase:

History shows a shock is more than possible in this. Cutting through the opposition, Sound Investment has a progressive profile and could be the one to concentrate on for those bold enough to play. Claret Cloak blundered away his chance in the Grand Annual at the second-last but has been raised 4lbs for the privilege and faces a similarly stiff task today.

4.50: Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

Temperament and a sketchy past record means Arkle winner Western Warhorse will not be short of detractors here. Stepping up in trip to 2m 4f (might be a problem if he decides to take a tug), those intent on backing him will do well to do so at SP – which will surely outstrip current cramped odds. With two serious contenders in the shadows, many will nominate him as the lay of the day.
Uxizandre performed well at the Festival when second to Taquin Du Seuill in the JLT where Oscar Whisky tipped up at the first. Effective in small fields, Oscar Whisky claimed the scalp of Taquin Du Seuill at Cheltenham in January and it is entirely possible he will regain the winning thread here. Along with Uxizandre his presence means there will be no hiding place for the Arkle winner.

5.25: Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

This represents a precarious end to the day as far as punters are concerned. Principal contenders appear to be the Irish duo Jetson and Busty Brown.

Although hard to fancy, now returned to timber from a favourable mark, Riverside Theatre is the sort to represent Nicky Henderson with credit, whilst Doctor Harper is on the upgrade.

A case can be constructed for the appropriately named Spirit Of Shankly. In all, for those anxious to continue playing, the advice would be to lob a few quid on the last-named at a sporting price. The sensible advice from this befuddled corner would be to leave the race alone.

So from a betting perspective, although ideas may transmogrify once racing gets underway, at this stage I am nominating two value bets in Actival and Diakal.

Take it easy on what might be a trickier day than it looks…

AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL MEETING 2014

(posted Monday evening 7pm)

This historic meeting kicks off on Thursday – and it is straight into top quality action with the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 2.00. With Zarkandar, Walkon, Binocular, Katchit and Detroit City among winners in recent years, this is an event often claimed by an obvious contender.

Cheltenham Festival runners have a good record (seven out of the last ten have obliged). Many will be anxious to recover Cheltenham losses with Calipto, who was travelling strongly when his jockey became the victim of a slipping saddle in the Triumph.

He will doubtless be heavily supported to make amends but may have to face Tiger Roll and Guitar Pete for a second time.

Betfred Bowl Chase:

In contrast to the opening event, this is often won by the right horse on the right day. That is to say it can be a consolation prize.

This proved to be the case for the likes of First Lieutenant, Follow The Plan, Nacarat and Exotic Dancer – all of whom had been beaten at the highest level coming into the race. Even so they could be relied upon to produce their best form against higher profile rivals that came here after long seasons.

The Pipe stable has farmed four of the last ten runnings, and will field the favourite in Dynaste – who was a winner at this meeting last year.

Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:

For anyone unaware of the name – Doom Bar is a particularly tasty bitter that is brewed in Cornwall. Those yet to acquaint themselves of this brew should redress such an oversight as soon as possible.

As for the race, it is the third of four Grade 1 events on the day. The key factor is the step up in trip for Champion Hurdle contenders that are now faced with 2m 4f.

For that reason it does not always pay to rely on Cheltenham form. Only two favourites have obliged over the last ten years (both of those joint favs) but that’s not to say the race favours outsiders.

Irish runners have a good record – they have won five of the last ten renewals. Assuming Annie Power will wait for Punchestown, many will consider this race to be tailor-made for The New One.

Crabbie’s Fox Hunters’ Chase:

Step forward the hero of the Aintree hour in Crabbies’, the alcoholic ginger beer manufacturer that has injected extra lashings of fizz into the meeting by their sponsorship.

This could be one of the races where spectators may want to avail themselves of their product as it invariably favours bookmakers over punters. Last year it was won by a 100/1 shot; in 2010 by a 50/1 chance. Otherwise three of the last ten runnings have resulted in a winning favourite, so the race can supply predictable results to a degree. It does help to have some knowledge of hunter chasing in general and, possibly more importantly, in a race where jockeyship can be paramount, of the riders involved.

Red Rum Handicap Chase:

One way or another, stand by for an unexpected result here. This handicap has thrown up three big price winners in the last ten years (two 20/1 chances and a 25/1 shot) as well as four winning favourites (including co-favs). It is invariably not an easy race to solve.

Pinsent Masons Manifesto Novices’ Chase:

With only five year’s results to go by, it is a little premature to pinpoint any real trends but so far this, the fourth of the Grade 1s on the day, has gone pretty much according to the script.

Captain Conan won it last year. Trainers Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs have won two races apiece. Tartak, in the inaugural running in 2009, was the biggest priced-winner to date for his trainer Tom George.

Plenty will be prepared to oppose Arkle winner Western Warhorse here. Oscar Whisky should be more suited to this track than Cheltenham, but the Irish challenge is potentially a strong one.

Dominican Republic Handicap Hurdle:

A tough three mile hurdle closes the day. This is one of the harder races to get right. Six of the last ten winners have returned at double-figure prices. To balance this out, the other four went to favourites. Unless you unearth a potential blot in the handicap – you know the risk you run when betting in events such as this.

Day Two:

The day starts with a Grade 2 novice hurdle over two miles sponsored by the International Festival for Business. Nicky Henderson has won the last two runnings, with My Tent Or Yours last year and Darlan before that.

With General Miller having supplied a win for Seven Barrows in 2010, Henderson, a top man at this track, will hope to be represented by Josses Hill this time. The opposition is potentially strong. If turning up, Arctic Fire and possibly Cheltenham flop Irving would count as two serious dangers.

It is back to a Grade 1 with the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase. Five of the last ten favourites have obliged for punters, including Dynaste last year. He was preceded by Silvianco Conti in 2012. There have been no real shocks in this over the past ten years. Six of the last ten winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival. A small field seems likely this year.

The Grade 1 Betfred Melling Chase

appears on statistics to be one of the more punter-friendly races with five of the last ten events going to the favourite.

However, with a roll-call that includes top two-milers like Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Moscow Flyer, that figure could be misleading. There is nothing of that calibre in this year’s line-up, a race that could well suit Queen Mother third Module over this extended trip.

Topham Chase:

Fifty percent of the last ten winners have been double-figure big prices, which is hardly surprising considering they often bet 10/1 the field.

This is also something of an oddity of a race, being as it is run over the in-between trip of 2m 6f and over the Grand National fences. This can be one of the hardest races at the meeting to call, although that does not prevent punters from piling in.

Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Chase:

At Fishers Cross last year and Black Jack Ketchum in 2006 were the only winning favourites in ten years. There have been four big price winners of this Grade 1 over three miles – often run on quick conditions.

Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle:

Punters are often in need of medication after this has been run. There have been no winning favourites in the last ten years. Sunnyhill Boy at 8/1 was the lowest-priced winner in 2009. 2013 Grand National winner, Aurora’s Encore prevailed in 2008 at odds of 50/1. A race to be wary of.

Concerto Group Mares’ Standard NH Flat Race:

A Flat race for mares – what joy to bring down the curtain on the second day’s proceedings! Turbo Linn in 2007 is the only winning favourite to date. Bring on the Doom Bar!

Grand National Saturday:

Pertemps Network Novices’ Hurdle: Elevated this year to a Grade 1, again the trip of 2m 4f could be partly responsible for some big-priced past winners. Ubak surprised at 22/1 last year. Bouggler won at 16/1 in 2009 and Turpin Green was also something of a shock when winning in 2005 at odds of 14/1. Otherwise there have been three winning favourites and fancied winners in the shape of Simonsig in 2012, Spirit Son in 2011, Elusive Dream in 2008 and Tidal Bay in 2007. The overall impression is that this is a solvable contest if the field is right.

Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Another Grade 1, this time over two miles. Several likely candidates are doubly engaged throughout the meeting, so at this stage it is a question of seeing who turns up.

A small field is likely. There have been five winning favourites in the last ten years – last year’s winner Special Tiara being the only blot in a race that otherwise favours punters.

Silver Cross Stayer’s Hurdle Grade 1:

At 11/2 in 2005, Monet’s Garden was the biggest-priced winner. Four-time winner Big Buck’s and dual-winner Mighty Man give this a wobbly shape as far as betting figures are concerned. More Of That would be popular if turning up; in his absence, At Fishers Cross (same ownership) would probably line up as favourite.

Having improved with every run this year, Whisper would be the dark horse.

And a word of possible interest here. Whisper’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has an enviable record at this meeting. For that reason it pays to scrutinise his representatives carefully over the week. Bear in mind he is often successful with those runners that are not obvious and at first glance appear to hold only average chances. He often does well in the handicaps.

Betfred TV Handicap Chase:

Only the racing authorities could plan or sanction this!

Here we have a handicap chase over the Mildmay fences run as a curtain-raiser for the Grand National, fifty minutes in advance of the big race of the meeting. Don’t be surprised if there is a shortage of jockeys wishing to take part in this, or a shortage for their scheduled mounts in the Grand National after it. And be prepared for a turn up!

Crabbie’s Grand National:

To a degree luck plays a big part, although the right horse often makes its own luck in this. The poser set for punters is to nominate the right horse for the occasion.

Often first-timers to the track have the edge, so class acts like Rocky Creek and Long Run could be of interest this year.

Aged thirteen and carrying 11st 10lbs, Tidal Bay will have to buck sensible statistics to win.

The favourite, Tea For Three had his chance last year when third and faces stiffer competition this time round.

With a couple of better handicapped contenders (Godsmejudge and Same Difference) now absentees, but worth bearing in mind for events like the Bet 365 Chase at Sandown or the Ayr National, it could be a case of the cream rising to the top in the form of either of the two mentioned.

Maxilead Metals Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders):

Cockney Sparrow was a winning favourite last year, Lifestyle the 28/1 winner in 2013. The kind of event that could throw up anything! If you are not already in a queue to collect winnings from the Grand National, it could be you shouldn’t be in one to place a bet in this.

Weatherbys Private Banking Champion NH Flat Race:

With winners at 33/1, 50/1, 28/1and 20/1, the past results speak for themselves.

This is not a race for punters tempted to punch their way out of trouble. That said, if there is any cash left, Modus is better than his running at Cheltenham might suggest and is likely to take more of a hand at the finish now if turning up. He does have the four-year-old hoodoo to defy.

These are some preliminary thoughts and ideas for the coming week. We hope you find them useful and that they may help focus you in the right direction.

We shall be posting Free Tips for each day. They should be online by most evenings, commencing on Wednesday.

Good luck…

MEYDAN
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 13TH

If it’s Thursday, it must be Meydan:

2.45:

The card starts with a competitive handicap. Energia Davos injects interest as his third last time to emphatic winner Cat O’Mountain could well provide a pointer to the winner’s future prospects at the Carnival. The form already looks solid, but such was the manner of Cat O’Mountain’s win, he looks booked for more elevated targets. Energia Davos should run his race from his eight draw.

Sanshaawes will be on most short lists after finishing fourth three weeks ago to Gabrial. He may well have posed more of a problem but for sweating badly beforehand and his supporters will hope he is more placid this time round. This race fails to offer much in the way of ammunition for would-be punters.

3.20:

The UAE 2,000 Guineas presents us with a hotchpotch of a field. Godolphin’s ex-Australian duo Long John and Paximadia (preferred in that order) potentially look to be a cut above other Godolphin representatives Safety Check and Emirates Flyer.

With both the Antipodeans reappearing after layoffs, it remains to be seen how ready they are to do themselves justice.

Full Combat will line up fit after a recent spin round this track when behind Emirates Flyer. He may be capable of improving on that, whilst the unexposed Asmar threatens to be an interesting participant along with Yarmouth winner Wenaan, who is now with Mike De Kock and could be anything.

3.55:

Gale Force Ten would be the topical tip here, but jockey bookings and his record since winning at Royal Ascot means he is unlikely to successfully carry his penalty to victory. This valuable handicap revolves round Grade 1 South African winner, Vercingetorix, who is unbeaten after only four runs and if lining up fit looks potentially well-treated.

4.30:

It is a surprise to see that Ballydoyle have parted with Mars – a horse that has always shaped as if he is likely to benefit from further than this trip. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, pedigree confirms that. Maybe we will see him to better advantage with today’s run under his belt.

Prolific graded South African winner, Variety Club could easily be good enough. These two look the class acts, but with them reappearing after lengthy absences, questions remain.

It’s a good card. At this stage, we could do with a clue or two…

EYE OF THE STORM

Those of a nervous disposition may want to avert their eyes. Right now it is difficult to comment on any events other than those that are happening beneath the interminable grey skies enclosing this little island of ours. Are we really in danger of floating off to sea – or sinking into it?

Nothing can minimise the anguish felt by those victims of the current monsoon. It is a tragedy of monumental proportions. At some point the rain will stop, but the damage it has wreaked will remain and take months and years to remove.

Violation of one’s own house ranks as one of the worst of all nightmares. A house, or dwelling, may only be bricks and mortar, but to those living within, it represents an extension of themselves. Everything from the pictures on the wall to the artefacts they have collected over the years – not to mention the invisible ones known as memories – can be swept away in an instant, never to be recovered.

I know this does not compare to the poverty and desperation we witness elsewhere in the world. Those waterlogged and wellie-squelching residents on the banks of the Thames are not about to be victims of a drought or a hurricane or even a marauding wild animal, but comparisons in misery is pointless. Misery is just that – misery.

Despite an abundance of warning, the current situation seems to have caught the authorities out. In true political style, they have looked skyward as yet more clouds fat with rain rumbled overhead, assuming all that is truly awful cannot last for any length of time.

Unfortunately, Nature works to its own agenda. At last, those in Westminster realise war has been declared. It seems their response as yet is limited. In a lighter vein, their inaction caused me to speculate how short we are of much-needed members of the armed forces. A good number are still marooned in the useless mission that is Afghanistan. I had this vision of an old sweat out there, standing to attention before his C.O., complaining: “Please Sir, don’t post me to Surbiton!”

Joking aside, the marshy plains lapping toward the capital have contrived to present Messrs Cameron and co with their first real test of leadership. Up to now they have had it easy. Pontificating about the high speed train link, culling badgers and paying lip service to gays pales into insignificance in comparison.

Now is the time for action not fancy talk. Nigel Farage has already seized the initiative, suggesting foreign aid cash is diverted to a crisis closer to home – on our doorstep in fact. Obviously this resonates with the rank and file. There may be underlying reasons why we send money to Somali pirates, fantasists in Ethopia and tin-pot dictators in the Heart Of Darkness that is other parts of Africa; it’s just we fail to see what they are.

Similarly, to give hard cash to India – a country close to my heart but that nevertheless has a space program that outstrips ours – seems bonkers. Will they allow us to board their gleaming rockets bound for a new home when this poor planet crashes and burns? A question mark is surely superfluous there.

If only we would learn from what is currently happening in the rest of the world. Nowhere is immune. America, The Philippines, Greenland, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Japan, America, Russia and Australia have all felt the impact of the much-disputed effects of global warming.

Those that deny the repercussion of global warming will presumably remove their heads from the sand when the weather improves, which of course it will. But how many more warnings do we as a species need? What will it take before we accept we are making a mess of the third planet from the sun – the one that, by a freak or the sheer law of probability, has unique conditions conducive to life. It would be a travesty if we threw it all away because of apathy. The answer is not to build wind farms or to limit the use of the petrol engine.

The first step is to prevent unnecessary action compounding our problems. Stop idiots burning car tyres in parts of Russia and the Middle East so that toxic black smoke mingles with sweet air. Stop the culling of the rain forests – pay those that have them to keep them. Cut out some of these stupid extreme so-called sports that burn a gallon of petrol a second so that coloured vapour trails can speckle the sky. These and other remedies to our problems might be a start. Of course those that make a living out of burning tyres and screaming through the air in planes or skimming over lakes in jet skis will complain. Tough! We have to start somewhere. Better they complain than we have those dependent on fuel for legitimate purposes, such as getting to work and visiting Tesco and B&Q once a week, squealing.

What am I saying? Nothing will be done. When the interminable rain is shrivelled by the sun’s after burn we will assume normality has returned – until next time that is.
Sorry, as you will have deduced, I am finding it difficult to focus on racing – what there is of it – at present. Give it three more weeks and we will have to turn our attention to Cheltenham and roll out the perennial will-they-or-won’t-they questions. But at this moment the Festival seems a world away.

Horses or not, I did strike a bet recently. I backed Leonardo DiCaprio to win Best Actor at the Oscars. It was the classic situation; I could not resist a massive price. He is an unlikely winner, but his performance in The Wolf On Wall Street was exceptional, meaning he was no 50/1 shot. So I availed myself of a monkey to a tenner, only to find his price is now in single figures.

Funnily enough I thought I could amass a bookie-busting Lucky Fifteen based on a couple of hunches. 12 Years A Slave is tipped to win everything. Maybe; but the competition is stiff this year. As well as The Wolf (Best Actor and Supporting Actor), Gravity (Best Director and Actress Sandra Bullock), The Dallas Buyers Club (Best Actor likely but not 1/10), Captain Philllips and Nebraska are solid contenders – although in a strong year they will struggle to win anything. Two films that as sprawling messes belong on a separate list despite having somehow managed to become nominated for various awards are American Hustle (a wasted opportunity of what could have been a good film and one that only sparks into life for the five minutes when Robert De Niro appears), and the shambolic shouting match that is August: Osage County.

My proposed Lucky Fifteen comprised of selections priced at such long odds, so much so I could not even calculate how much I might have won to a lousy ten pence stake. Last count was somewhere in the region of £40,000. Needless to say, with selections that were associated, bookmakers were not prepared to accept multiple bets. Fair enough, they are unlikely anyway. I was temporarily the victim of the I know-that-can’t-win-but-the-price-is-way-too-big syndrome! Back to the drawing board for me!

And tomorrow is Meydan. At present, having no wish to back horses that slip and slide all over the place and then get beaten a country mile, Meydan occupies the majority of my thought-processes as far as racing is concerned. It is hard to back a winner there. Races are often tactical affairs and sometimes we are forced to guess whether a once decent horse can regain form that would entitle it to win in lesser company. As a rule the answer is, no. But it doesn’t deter me.

They might be going down at Kelso tomorrow, but I shall be in Dubai – in spirit anyway. My comments on the card will be posted shortly, dependent on how elongated Bob’s lunch has been! I doubt they will do you much good, and being honest, I probably won’t even bet. Even so, it keeps my hand in. You never know, I might even winkle out a whomper here if it ever stops raining!

SATURDAY

FEBRUARY 8TH

It’s a case of the usual guess-up when trying to evaluate Saturday’s Lingfield card; whilst we tilt the crystal ball to a different angle when weighing up the Newbury options, where the weather could be the deciding factor.

I live seven miles from Newbury racecourse (they can call it Racecourse Newbury all they like!) and although racing would have been possible today, the forecast for tomorrow is appalling. Onward and upward as they say; since when did we allow the weathermen to have the last word?

1.20:

Although you would expect him to win, Calipto is no good thing in the opener as he has to concede weight-for-age to his rivals. As a four-year-old, he effectively carries a l0lb penalty. With the promising Justification and Seedling to contend with this is no simple task, but should he accomplish it, in a wide open year he would put himself into the Triumph Hurdle reckoning.

2.25:

Although officially the best horse in the line-up, Al Ferof may struggle to confirm that in these conditions. Conversely, from the in-form yard of Venetia Williams, Katenko will relish the ground and comes here after a mighty effort at Haydock in the Peter Marsh. He looks to be hitting his stride after two earlier disappointments this season and has his best chance of grabbing Grade 2 success in this field, where Al Ferof apart, his opponents look sub-standard.

3.35:

If we get this far, Irish Saint does look well-in on his 5lbs penalty after his Ascot rout in similar conditions. A fit and well Montbazon would be a credible alternative if returning in top fettle. Last seen when fourth in the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Cinders And Ashes, he brings a touch of class to the event. It could be significant that stable jockey Robert Thornton appears to favour him over November course winner Vendor.

Like Montblazon, Vasco Du Ronceray was highly-tried as a juvenile and makes his reappearance here. It would be premature to dismiss Dell ‘Arca who was travelling well when brought down in the Ladbroke.

Warwick Racing

2.20:

A case can be made for Mischievous Milly reversing places with Glens Melody as she did meet with interference last time and has only three-parts of a length to find.

On another conundrum of a day, Katenko is seen as having the best winning chance of those mentioned in Newbury’s 2.25.

MEYDAN THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6th:

The Carnival that is Dubai is beginning to take shape. Although this week’s card is not easy, it may be possible to identify a couple of likely winners and certainly some horses of future interest.

3.15: Alnashmy’s record on an artificial surface, allied to a highly encouraging pipe-opener three weeks ago means he lines up here with just about the best claims. So long as he can utilise the lowest draw of all, he looks the one to beat in this competitive handicap.

4.25: Godolphin look poised to dominate in this listed event where Wedding Ring bids to follow up after a comfortable win on this surface three weeks ago.

However, her main danger, Ihtimal has reportedly thrived since arriving in the desert and is expected to come out the better. Arguably disappointing in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket when given too much to do behind subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner Chriselliam, there is already talk of her becoming a major contender at Newmarket in the Guineas. She will need to win here to justify such optimism.

5.05: Last year’s winner Star Empire shaped with plenty of promise when third here three weeks ago to Sheikhzayedroad and all the signs are he has been prepared with this mind. He threatens to be hard to beat. However, dangers abound. Of these, Certerach and Statutory look the most potent.

5.40: This Group 2 is one of the races of the day. Zahee cannot be relied upon to reproduce last week’s running, and even if he does encounters much stronger opposition now.

The Godolphin representatives, Hunter’s Light and African Story will have their supporters as both were effective here last year. Last seen in December in the Hong Kong Vase, Dunaden is a proven class act in this sort of company but the trip (may be short of his best) and an unknown surface makes it hard to be confident. As this is his first run since the Vase, he may improve for the run and other targets could be in sight.

Heavy Metal is one of two potentially interesting runners. He was never put in the race last week over an inadequate seven furlongs and now steps up to a much more suitable distance. The booking of Richard Hughes indicates better is now expected.

Last seen in the Grand Prix de Paris, Battle Of Marengo now returns to action after having finished fourth in last year’s Derby. By Galileo, but out of a speedy Green Desert mare, he always gave the impression that this would be his optimum trip – something his past record indicates. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but despite leaving Aidan O’Brien’s stable he is in good hands and with Dettori booked, could run well on his comeback. The market may be the best guide in a tough contest.

6.15: Narrowly beaten by Gabrial two weeks ago, El Estruendoso should be cherry-ripe in this concluding handicap.

Four for a Lucky Fifteen would be

3.15: Alnashmy
4.25: Ihtimal
5.05: Star Empire
6.15: El Estruendoso.

Best of the Day: Alnashmy.

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 1ST:
(updated Friday 3.45pm)

Racing limps into a new month with Sandown planning an all-chase card. However, with the possibility of further rain it is entirely possible racing there may be still be in jeopardy. Even if Sandown goes ahead, it is hard to be confident about backing anything on a cobbled-together program that hangs by a thread.

The main event on the card is the Scilly Isle Novices’ chase, which has cut up to a field of three. Course and distance winner Oscar Whisky will be short to continue a current run over fences. Benvolio looks a bigger danger than Manyriverstocross but lacks the class of Oscar Whisky.

That said backing horses on virtually unraceable ground is never advisable – particularly at short prices.

If Ffos Las goes ahead the feature there is the limited handicap that is the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

One gets the impression the handicapper is frustrated by Saphir Du Rheu, hiking him by a further 13lbs after his impressive victory in the Lanzarote. After finishing third to Saphir Du Rheu at Sandown, Whisper re-opposes on 21lbs better terms for just over nine lengths. On the face of it that should be enough, but such is the improvement shown by Saphir Du Rheu he could easily follow-up.

The 12lbs rise accorded to Mountainous for his head win in the Welsh Grand National from two similarly-rated rivals – split by Tidal Bay – is yet another example of the handicapper’s intransience. As said before, it is not the handicapper’s function to prevent horses from winning; they should merely be rated on what they have achieved.

A 7lbs rise for Mountainous would have seemed adequate at this stage. He faces another slog in the 2.40 and makes no appeal from a betting perspective.

The Lingfield card is the same-old-same-old to a degree.

The 3.30 there may be worth a second look. Three of the field of eight are marginally out of the handicap, but appear to be up against it in any case.

Likely favourite Blue Wave has been hiked up by 10lbs after a dubious win at Southwell last time and now stares a 16lbs rise in the face since winning over course and distance earlier in January. On the face of it he hardly looks well-treated.

It has been a long time between drinks for Mawaakef who last won from this mark in December 2012. He has not run to that form since and his latest third in an amateur riders’ event requires improving upon.

Grendisar is a little more appealing. His latest effort can be disregarded as an attempt at two miles only confirmed (as per his breeding) that he failed to stay. However, he is in a race with the handicapper, who is loading him with weight as a result of his consistency.

In an event where nothing looks particularly well-treated, top weight Swing Alone may have the best chance at the weights. He has reached a plateau from a mark of 90 and from only 3lbs higher here, he should at least be in the mix. There is every indication he will get a trip he has yet to win over, but he ran well enough over a mile-and-a-half in January. His five length beating by String Theory at Wolverhampton in December reads well enough in the light of the winner’s close second at Meydan on Thursday.

So Swing Alone is the best idea on a day that frankly will make more appeal to bookmakers than it does to punters.

We are pulling out of winter and approaching an interesting time of the year.

Cheltenham is just over five weeks away. The Carnival in Dubai continues to turn and how quickly the Flat will start. Then along comes the glitz of the Grand National. It will be Newmarket’s Craven and Classic trials from Newbury and sometimes hidden amongst the chocolate silver paper trail leading to the Easter cards at Kempton. Sometimes you have to be patient…

CHASING THE BIG BUCKS

Right now, what with conditions as they are, seems like the perfect time for a spot of speculation. To be frank, unless like me you are a Meydan fan, there is not a lot else to do.

Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham gave us all food for thought. The biggest question was whether Big Buck’s could still be included on the Cheltenham Festival menu after what was surely a gigantic effort in the Cleeve Hurdle.

After fifteen months absence and a tendon injury, at the age of eleven, Big Buck’s should arguably have been putting Felicity and Rupert through their paces at a riding school.

Yet here he was: back in action in a Grade 2, on ground that was softer than ideal, according to Paul Nicholls short of peak fitness, travelling strongly against serious opposition and for the most part looking like the winner.

Jumping the last in front with ears pricked, it seemed the wand in the sky was about to revive all the old magic. However, not for the first time, the uphill slog changed the complexion of the race. In a cruel twist of fate, Big Buck’s was caught halfway up the run-in, beaten less than a length by both 66/1 shot Knockara Beau and At Fishers Cross.

Although disappointing to the legions that had trouped to Cheltenham, whilst the hats were not twirling in the air, the old boy had covered himself in glory. Giving weight to the two that finished ahead of him and seeing off his main market rivals Reve De Sivola and Boston Bob (both of whom ran poorly it has to be said), his fans left the course muttering that it would all be different is six weeks. Bring on the World Hurdle!

And bring it on indeed they will! Whatever the merit of Saturday’s run (and it was surely considerable both from an equine and human point of view), Big Buck’s will face no shortage of pretenders to his crown come the Festival. His Cleeve run poses several interesting questions.

The first of these has to be: Did the Big Buck’s we saw on Saturday bear any resemblance to the one of old. He certainly looked the same. But as we all know, looking and being are two entirely different entities. First reaction was to feel relief that the horse had survived the ordeal. But when the adrenalin had subsided to be replaced by cold clinical evaluation, the figures on the page made for less heady reading.

Forget the close to miraculous achievement from his trainer to get the horse back on the track and the way Big Buck’s galloped to near victory, and you are left with a below-par run. Of course he was not expected to be back to his best under these conditions. The trouble is his best was assessed at a towering mark of 174.

On Saturday he ran below that by a stone or so. His staunch supporters expect significant improvement, but to expect him to improve to the tune of ten pounds is assuming a lot. The first thing to say here is – just like so-called unlucky losers – that after a run when everything was against them, good horses never improve by the expected amount.

The reason is self-evident to a degree: good horses will try their best in all conditions; therefore, they will drive themselves through and beyond the pain barrier. Like Boxer in Animal Farm or the charger at Sebastopol, doing their level-headed best is all they know. In short, expect Big Buck’s to come on from Saturday, but don’t expect a miracle.

Whichever way you shake the dice, the odds are we have seen the best of Big Buck’s. What he was once capable of belongs in the history books. Aged eleven and given the problems he has experienced, he is most unlikely to roar back to the elevated rating of a horse in the 170’s. So what can we reasonably expect?

Providing he makes the World Hurdle line-up, let’s assume he will find 5lbs or so. He may of course find more, but from a betting point of view 5lbs seems reasonable. That would mean he is 10lbs inferior to when he last won the event. That doesn’t mean he won’t win it, but it makes it a whole lot tougher assignment this time round.

Snapping at his heels are the two mares, Annie Power and the evergreen Quevega, both of whom have alternative targets. As they represent the same stable only one can be expected to take part, but either one would provide a formidable challenge – certainly tougher than either of the two that finished in front of Big Buck’s on Saturday.

As it stands, you wouldn’t back At Fishers Cross to beat Big Buck’s next time at levels but, after his best run of the current campaign, you wouldn’t be knocked over he did.

Add to the mix two possible young pretenders in More Of That and Saphir Du Rheu (unlikely to run but can’t be dismissed just yet) and a supporting cast that have scattered chances of sorts, and The World Hurdle could turn out to be a tough event.

So, currently priced up at 2/1 best, is that value about a horse looking up at the mountain from such a long way below the summit? I suspect it is not. I suspect it factors in too many imponderables, the biggest of which is the horse Big Buck’s once was. As punters we have the option of backing when we think we have unearthed the right sort of bet. It is not obligatory to wager on every event.

Arbitrage betting aside, were I to offer you 4/1 about Big Buck’s (banker’s references required and a minimum of £100 per punter), would you be a taker? Only you can answer that one. But it raises the age-old question – when does a no-bet become a bet? Are all bets solely price-driven? As the theoretical layer, in this instance, I am picking my race with some care. It does not mean I will repeat the offer on the next race. It might appear that I am offering 5/4 about the head-or-tail spin of a coin, but I am only offering it once. Take it leave it. So do you feel lucky punk; well do yah?

Leaving Clint in California, I guess most bets are price-driven. We all come to conclusions and are then liable to be put off when we know the price of our selections.

Coming up with a horse that is 9/4 in a competitive fifteen-runner handicap is enough to deter us betting. We argue, although we expect the horse to win, there have to be easier 9/4 shots to be found than the current selection. Of course the price does not determine the outcome.

Assuming our reasoning is sound, the horse has the same chance of winning the race whether it is 9/4 or 9/1 – often the price it will trade in running if truth be told.

But the longer the price the more likely it is we may have overlooked a salient factor picked up by those that set the odds. Assuming that is not the case, once the bell clangs the horse faces the same task as it did when you came to your independent conclusion.

The problem with allowing prices to determine whether we bet or not is that we are allowing the bookmakers to dictate our betting patterns. Unfortunately, as they set the prices, until the exchange-effect kicks-in late in the day that is largely unavoidable.

Prices are not set in stone. One person’s 5/1 may be another person’s 5/2 – even under exceptional circumstances – 5/4. When all the traders have left the floor, prices are only a reflection of opinion. And opinion will always vary. And as most of us lose more often than we win, the inescapable and slightly depressing conclusion has to be we will be wrong more often than we are right. That is to say events will conspire to make us look wrong even when we are right.

My apologies if I am sounding like Donald Rumsfeld here (there are things we know that we don’t know we know, and things we know that we don’t know etc). The thing we do know about Big Buck’s is that there is a chance (however slim) that he won’t even replicate the Cleeve run.

By racing standards he is long-in-the-tooth and may be forced out of contention either in the race or on the run-up to it. Whilst wishing him all the best (if he were mine I would have to run him), the possibility remains that come the day he may be incapable of flipping back the calendar. The young guns have him in their sights. I wish him well – I hope he wins – but as far as backing him to do so, I will pass.

SATURDAY JANUARY 25th:

(posted Friday night 10pm)

CHELTENHAM RACING

Billed as Trial Day, this card promises to supply more clues than answers.

Hitting the ground running, the opener, at 12.40, features a field of six credible Triumph Hurdle contenders. That said Vicenzo Mio and Le Rocher look the major players.

Kentucky Hyden appears to have better form in France than shown so far over here, but it is always possible he will improve with two runs under his belt.

Despite only winning a moderate event at Kempton, the classy Goodwood Mirage jumped well in the main, recovering from a collision in mid-air two out and a mistake at the last. He displayed plenty of the right stuff to get up in the last stride and could be capable of stepping up in this better company.

Ballyglasheen will surely struggle to confirm earlier Cheltenham form with Kentucky Hyden, whilst Ronaldinho looked to be running on empty over this trip on his debut at Newbury.

1.15:

Jumping is The Italian Yob’s strong suit and it should continue to stand him in good stead in this handicap.

This oddity of a trip looks ideal for him as he is not devoid of pace.

Dark Lover looks likely to benefit from this step up in trip but his jumping remains novicey – always a concern here. The concession of 10lbs to The Italian Yob threatens to tip the scales against him.

Indian Castle and Samingarry, whilst holding chances, may be better served by an extended trip. Although no cakewalk, this appears to be The Italian Yob’s race to lose.

3.35:

There has to be a question mark hanging over Big Bucks on his return to action in the Cleeve Hurdle. Now eleven, he was last seen in December 2012 when notching his eighteenth straight hurdle win at Newbury. His record is clearly enviable; however his current price assumes plenty and he makes no betting appeal. He would have the measure of these rivals in his heyday, but they are still serious opponents under current circumstances.

On this year’s evidence, At Fishers Cross is hard to fancy, leaving the exposed but consistent Reve De Sivola and the upcoming force that is Boston Bob as the two likeliest dangers.

Reve De Sivola should run to merit, in which case he will expose any chinks in the favourite’s armoury.

Boston Bob returns to hurdles after an unconvincing spell over fences. He has somewhere in the region of 10lbs to find on the principals but receives 4lbs from them which will aid his cause. He is obviously an interesting runner that is hard to discount.

DONCASTER RACING

12.55:

Rock On Ruby requires his potential punters to take another leap of faith on his chasing debut. Admittedly these are comparatively easy fences for a novice, but although this former Champion Hurdle winner lines up with the best hurdle form, it is no given that will be transferred over the larger obstacles.

Unbeaten over fences after two impressive wins, Valdez threatens to present a formidable test. Despite a hike in class Arnaud cannot be overlooked with impunity so whatever they say about Rock On Ruby, at around the even-money mark, backing him looks like attempting to earn money the hard way.

3.15:

There is a long shortlist for this: Unioniste, Kruzhlinin and Night In Milan are seen as the chief protagonists, but others are impossible to overlook. As it stands, sponsors Sky Bet should consider themselves well pleased.

LEOPARDSTOWN RACING

2.50:

Minsk is nominated as a possible in this on the face of what looks to be a fiercely competitive handicap. A chasing mark of 131 gives him a real chance based on his hurdles form. Only six and a runner in the Triumph Hurdle of his year, he was always regarded as a hurdler of considerable potential and his three runs over fences to date suggest he is approaching his peak over this medium.

A close third to the classy Djakadam (runner in the Grade 2 on this card at 2.15) last time, although possibly flattering, means he looks temptingly weighted.

The Italian Yob in the 1.15 at Cheltenham is nominated as the best idea on a tricky day. For those with a few bob to spare, Minsk may prove rewarding at double-figure odds in the 2.50 at Leopardstown.

SATURDAY JANUARY 18th:

(posted Friday 3.30pm)

ASCOT:

2.25:

The angle to adopt here is to take a view one way or another about The Skyfarmer. It is entirely possible he may be different class to today’s rivals but, unlike Saphir Du Rheu who survived a lumpy weight rise last week, the trump card has already been played with The Skyfarmer.

A winner last time at Cheltenham from Lyvius (beat Deep Trouble last week at Kempton), after three unbeaten runs over hurdles, The Skyfarmer has a win-stopping rise of 17lbs to defy against potentially better company.

There is no obvious evidence for improvement available other than what we have seen so far. Despite his obvious potential, a sudden rise to a mark of 140 suggests the handicapper has overacted to the tune of six pounds or so.

As has been said so many times here, it is not the handicapper’s function to penalise horses on a winning streak to the extent they can no longer win. It is his job to assess horses according to what they have achieved rather than second-guess what they might achieve.

For that reason I am inclined to look beyond this highly promising six-year-old. Just as he has plenty on his plate, it threatens to be a similar story for Minella Forfitness, who makes his seasonal reappearance from a mark of 145.

On a day when those attempting to lug big weights are sure to feel the strain, Bourne is the horse that looks attractively weighted. Having shaped like a horse about to run into form on his last two outings, if he is about to strike, this could be the day for this course and distance winner to do so. If able to replicate his run here last February from a mark of 140, Bourne has a real chance from 125 and looks potentially overpriced. Of the rest, lightly-raced Get Back In Line, who unseated in the Gerry Feilden last time, is feared most.

3.35:

This Grade 1 presents Sire De Grugy with a serious chance of supplementing his latest success at this level in the Desert Orchid. Right-handed tracks seem to suit him best. Once again this promises to provide a slog in the ground. If there is a horse to beat him it could be Hidden Cyclone, who ran a cracker in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham and was a decent second at this level at Leopardstown last time.

More is required now but Sire De Grugy apart, this is not a strong contest and he is capable of acting in a bog.

HAYDOCK:

1.30:

Gevrey Chambetin looks an interesting recruit to chasing here. A proficient hurdler (he won over the fixed obstacles at this course in November), if able to transfer hurdles form to these bigger obstacles he ought to cash in on the 7lbs he receives from Taquin Du Seuil.

The presence of O’Faolains Boy – who shaped with plenty of promise at Ascot on his chasing debut – further threatens to make life tough for the penalised Taquin Du Seuil.

2.40:

Ptit Zig put in a massive effort when runner-up from top weight in the Ladbroke. Despite a penalty here, this Group 1 winner in France remains a horse of utmost interest and is definitely the one to beat now.

LINGFIELD:

12.50:

War Of Art showed promise in a maiden over this course last month that in all honesty is sending out mixed messages. According to the market not much was expected on debut so normal improvement could see him in the mix now. That said the draw is off-putting to a degree, but this looks a moderate event and the draw is never so crucial in maidens.

4.15:

Although there is nothing between Masterpaver and Blossom Lane on these revised terms, the filly [Blossom Lane] is taken to come out on top over this extra yardage, which should suit her better. Dutchartcollector is another likely to pull out a bit extra on this first venture over 1m 2f and these two could fight out the finish.

Ascot looks to present the best two betting opportunities.

A chance is taken with Bourne in the 2.25 and with Hidden Cyclone in the 3.35 who promises to offer a similar overpriced opportunity to those looking for value.

Elsewhere, comments are made purely as a guide rather than as a concrete invitation to bet.

Two winners for an in-form SPY today: Saphir Du Rheu and Deputy Dan. The other selection, Minella On Line was second.

SATURDAY JANUARY 11th.

(Posted Friday evening 6pm)

One way or another, it looks like we will be racing this Saturday.

No problems are envisaged at Lingfield, where in the feature event at 2.35 – the Class 2 conditions stakes – it is hard to get away from the obvious in the well-treated Galician and Grey Mirage, both of whom bring recent form to the line-up.

At Warwick in the 3.00, Deputy Dan won in similar conditions last time at Chepstow and carries stable confidence in this Grade 2. He faces serious dangers in Killala Quay and Rathvinden but could represent value.

Kempton promises to provide a top quality card.

Minella On line is taken to score in the 1.00.

A remote third to Deputy Dan at Chepstow, he should not be judged solely on that effort as a mistake in the straight put paid to any chance he had. An earlier third to the useful Josses Hill in a NHF suggests he is better than that Chepstow effort and this step up in trip should be ideal.

His main market rival Closing Ceremony disappointed at Ffos Las last time without any apparent excuse and is possibly best watched at present.

The Grade 1 Tolworth looks a top class renewal and it is hard to discount any runner.

Irish contender Upzao complicates calculations after an impressive win at Fairyhouse last time. Obviously, given his connections, he has to be feared. The Liquidator was impressive at Cheltenham last time and Prince Siegfried looked poised to cause an upset at Ascot before falling at the last. Josses Hill is difficult to assess but won impressively at Newbury.

Although arguably disappointing at Cheltenham when just outpointed by Ballyalton (beaten since), Garde La Victoire had earlier looked more than useful when hammering Gone Too Far at Warwick and it would be premature to rule him out.

The Lanzarote Hurdle looks as competitive as ever. Saphir Du Rheu heads the three that make most appeal.

He looks set to climb the heights over this sort of trip, proving a revelation last time when he routed some useful rivals at Sandown over 2m 6f. A 15lbs rise demands more but is in part offset by Harry Derham’s 5lb allowance. He could easily be destined for better things than handicaps.

Junction Fourteen is another facing a hefty hike after skating up over course and distance on Boxing Day. A 16lbs rise threatens to make matters much thornier here in better compa
ny.

River Maigue was a useful novice last season and made a satisfactory return at Sandown in December behind Deep Trouble, looking as if this step up in trip would suit.

Best ideas on the day are Deputy Dan at Warwick and Minella On Line and Saphir Du Rheu at Kempton.

SATURDAY JANUARY 4th:

LINGFIELD RACING

They have thrown some tricky handicaps our way on this card, so it may be a case of playing safe and looking for the safest options.

12.50:

As those that have run have either shown little or been accorded plenty of chances, only the unraced Swivel is seen as a potential danger to the well-drawn Anglo Irish, who showed plenty of promise on debut at Kempton sixteen days ago. He should be good enough to open his account here.

2.00:

Unlucky last time over course and distance on her handicap debut, Joyous is similarly hard to get away from in the Class 6 handicap. From a plum draw of 5 in a field of twelve, she gets her chance against opponents that are largely on the decline or struggling to regain their best form.

JANUARY 1st 2014

(posted Tues Evening)

So here we go again; a new year, new challenges, new resolutions. Off course 2014 will be different…won’t it?

Here’s hoping you saw in the New Year in style and that you are raring to get on with 2014.

Traditionally, the Cheltenham card sets the year into motion. There is no room for slackers as we start early enough with the Class 3 novice hurdle at 12.10.

It has attracted a useful looking field, although Ballyalton seems to stand out. A narrow winner here last time from the highly regarded Garde La Victoire, it could be argued jockeyship was the deciding factor; but give or take half a length, this still remains strong form. A 7lbs penalty is not prohibitive and he remains very much the one to beat.

Royal Regatta would have to be the equal of Garde La Victorie to win, as would Abusson. That looks unlikely. Racing Pulse looks a stayer (won over 2m 6f last time) whereas Ballyalton has stamina and speed.

After a knotty chase handicap, we are treated to the rematch of Oscar Whisky and Taquin Du Seuil in the 1.20. The latter did beat Oscar Whisky in November in an unsatisfactory event when conceding 5lbs.

Although reasons can be forwarded for the validity of that result, it still gives Taquin Du Seuil the edge, particularly over a more suitable trip. Oscar Whisky did beat Wonderful Charm here last time, but the margin of victory was close and once again he was on the receiving end of weight – getting 8lbs.

Although the outcome is far from certain, early prices indicate Oscar Whisky is a likely morning line favourite. This assumes plenty and Taquin Du Seuil may wind up value. Whilst an unlikely winner last time or now, Close House was in the process of running a big race when falling behind Oscar Whisky last time. But this does have a two-horse look to it, and if pressed, preference is for Taquin Du Seuil.

1.55:

This Class 2 handicap hurdle has been constructed by a humorist. If they are to bet, punters need to take a lot on trust here.

First into the spotlight is the decent Godolphin cast-off, Whispering Gallery, who was capable of running to about 108 on the level. Last seen in February 2013 when winning the second of his spins over timber, he is an intriguing runner and becomes another high profile ex-Flat horse switching codes under John Ferguson’s banner. A mark of 144 does require improvement (not a lot) but, more crucially, he needs to prove he can stay three miles.

Of the two, Return Spring is probably a more solid candidate, although more is required after a valiant second to Sunnyhill Boy here last time.

The Giant Bolster seems to have lost his way and is not inordinately treated on his return to timber in any case. Poungach is another alternating between fences and hurdles and has plenty to do.

Returning after an excellent third to Brindisi Breeze in the Albert Barlett at the Festival in 2012, Grand Vision takes the eye from a handicapping perspective. If fit and well, he would play a part.

Burton Port is another that has excellent claims on his chasing form. Although a ‘nearly’ horse in that sphere – runs behind Long Run (Denham Chase), Synchronised (Gold Cup), and Follow The Flag (Betfred Bowl) when not beaten far having achieved marks varying from 160 – 166, means he is favourably treated now. If you can forgive his three runs this season and judge him on his best form, he is more than capable of causing problems here and is seen as worth an interest at the morning price. Coral seems to have taken a right chance in offering him at 12/1.

2.30:

Double Ross will be justifiably popular to lift the Grade 3 chase after his success here last time This represents a drop in grade; however, you could argue he was a fortunate winner that day with the second and third both victims of misfortunate in running when it mattered. A rise of seven pounds might find him out. His opposition now is motley though, so nominating the one most likely to take advantage is difficult.

3.05:

Annie Power is taken to confirm superiority over Zarkandar on 4lbs worse terms but this is no foregone conclusion and looks like a race best watched.

Saturday 28th Dec

(Posted Friday midday)

LET IT RAIN…

There’s nothing easy about Saturday, particularly now the weather has had such an impact. Without looking for excuses in advance, it would be foolish for punters to bet as if conditions were normal. We may see some haphazard results.

At Chepstow in the Welsh Grand National at 2.35, where participants will need bottomless reserves of stamina and water wings, Merry King has always appealed as a likely candidate for this type of race. A step up in trip should suit; although, as mentioned, this will take a great deal of getting. Certainly not disgraced at Newbury in the Hennessy – a race that thus far is working out as well as could be expected – he competes here from the same mark and from the right end of the handicap.

Providing he copes with ground he has yet to face, Wilde Blue Yonder looks the clear form pick in the 3.25 and is hard to oppose. The novice he won at the last meeting has worked out particularly well, giving him the edge over main market rival, Stand To Reason who has to be feared, but will need to better an albeit comfortable Wincanton success to trouble Wilde Blue Yonder

BOXING DAY AND BEYOND…

This week – one of the most significant in the calendar – started with a tinge of sadness as we lost Chatterbox to a racing injury at Ascot and then, across the water and far away, came news that the legendary venue known as Hollywood Park had staged its last meeting. After an eleven-race program, commentator Vic Stauffer called time with the announcement: “Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes racing at Hollywood Park – the track of lakes and flowers. Good night.”

If it sounded somewhat trite, like a line from the Two Ronnies (And it’s good night from me and it’s good night from him), actually it was quite sombre.

Hollywood Park was one of the more picturesque of the American racecourses (of which, surprisingly there are not too many), and its passing, to make way for development, is symptomatic of modern cemented-over life.

Building more houses to make way for more people so they can produce more people on an already overcrowded planet seems to be the adopted mantra these days. Anyone heard the Joni Mitchell song Big Yellow Taxi and delved beyond her closing chortle?

The demise of Hollywood Park means the end of life as they knew it for all those that lived and worked there; those that held cherished memories of the likes of Seabiscuit, Citation, Cigar, John Henry, Affirmed and Zenyatta.

That’s progress they will tell you as the diggers assemble. Maybe they are right. Like the fine meal you had last night, once it is history, what difference does it make? A new generation can hardly miss what it never had. Sometimes it seems the world is beyond one’s grasp; that those calling the shots were never interviewed for the position they assume and therefore have dubious qualifications to hold it.

I realise all of this grumpiness and pathos is hardly appropriate for the season. One of the benefits of writing is that you can say what you wish. So long as it passes the edit it gets printed or blogged or exhibited on YouTube for others to smirk at. So sometimes you just feel like saying what is on your mind and to hell with the consequences.

I realise I should be wishing you all a great Christmas and hoping your turkeys (if you’ve managed to procure one) cook to a golden brown and accompany the Rioja and sprouts like everything was matched in some celestial place; but, if it’s all right with you, I shall leave that to others. I am sure you are not short of greetings. It seems to me one more proclamation of all good things from a complete stranger may be enough to send some of you over the edge. Or, once again, is that just me?

In recent years an aunt that has hitherto never shown the slightest interest in my welfare has started sending me a card. I say a card, actually it is little bigger than a square of toilet paper. It makes me wonder what possesses people to send infinitesimally small cards in the first place.

I mean, if it is matter of finances, my advice to them would be to cut out a yearly card and send a half-decent one every three years.

It is the same with presents. Surely the point of them is to show you have given the process some thought and to provide someone you care for with a gift they would perhaps like, but consider an indulgence and therefore would not buy for themselves. What thought goes in to grabbing any old pair of socks, chocolates, handkerchiefs or jumper before wrapping them up?

What it is with people dishing out instructions as to which presents they desire? You might as well just give them the money and tell them to get on with it. What about those that issue wedding-style lists?

What the racing powers that be have deemed to present us humble race goers with this Boxing Day is ten domestic meetings and three in Ireland. The Irish figure seems reasonable. The other one looks suspiciously like overkill.

However, Nature looks like having the final word. With more bad weather forecast between now and the weekend, chances are several venues will be more suited to staging water polo than horse racing.

Let’s face it, come Boxing Day Kempton is the only meeting of any import this side of the Irish Sea.

It is the equivalent of England against Argentina, more realistically, Arsenal against Chelsea (I know it ended nil-nil); why therefore does racing need its outposts to dilute an otherwise top class program? Sorry; silly me, I forgot – it’s all to do with the Levy and the turnover and punters losing enough money to finance the whole shebang and the man-in-the-moon.

So what about Kempton Park? London and its surrounding area is soaking wet and parts of it are battered and scarred and we have lost some trees, but otherwise the show goes on and it looks like conditions will be back to normal by Boxing Day.

The furniture stores will roll out last year’s sofas at greatly reduced prices, and you will be able to get a new kitchen at half-price and queue outside the big department stores to pick up sales bargains if you so desire. Life will resume. Huntingdon, Ffos Las, Wetherby, Sedgefield and Market Rasen will have to take their chances.

Kempton has not let us down. Vaniteux looked a very interesting recruit at Sandown earlier in the month and gets a chance to confirm that promise in the 12.50.

He faces a classy opponent in Dubai Prince, last seen on the Flat when beating none other than Side Glance in a Group 3 at York. He was then trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni – the Susanna Reid of the Godolphin operation.

There is however the not inconsiderable matter of eight flights to negotiate now. Undoubtedly capable of taking high rank over timber, Dubai Prince won on the steal at Leicester on his introduction, but Vaniteux’s race at Sandown looked to have more depth to it. He also won in a faster time; albeit that may now be negated by a 3lbs differential.

Even so, the phrase, ‘horses for courses’ was designed for an occasion such as this. Although Vaniteux would not be capable of blowing up Side Glance’s rotund bottom on the Flat, this is not Flat racing and I prefer his chance.

Two potentially decent chasers line up for the handicap chase that follows at 1.25. I always find it odd that horses without steeple-chasing experience are eligible to take part in a handicap – a situation that surely urges punters towards caution, something that can never be good for the Levy or turnover.

The fact remains that Urbain De Sivola and Western Warhorse could easily be ahead of their rivals here, but until we see them jump a fence we won’t know. Paying to find out is invariably expensive.

Just A Par looks like being odds-on in the next at 2.00. Granted a clear round he should win, although there are surely better ways of trying to finance Christmas expenses.

The assumed match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours adds more than a sprig of extra holly to the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle.

At the prices it is hard to differentiate between them. Racing is not a game of football. Whatever your leanings here, it is not essential to support one or the other. On all known information it is tempting to assume My Tent Or Yours may have a touch more speed on a sharp track like this, but one fluff at a hurdle or one moment’s hesitation when it matters could change all that. Surely the sensible course of action (unless you are in possession of a scoop about one or the other) is to watch this from the bottom of a glass.

But the King George VI Chase looks a different matter, at least to me. You see, I feel I know the winner of this, and am confident I can discard several in the field.

Firstly, Al Ferof is a doubtful stayer. There is one in this race every year and 2013 is his turn to be it. Even if he does stay, his jumping is hardly bombproof. Inclined to take a chance with his fences, he looks a very unlikely winner to me.

Cue Card’s claims largely rest on his win last time in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Whilst he could be a revelation now he is switched to three miles, he flopped in this last year and normally this is an event you only get one shot at.

That remark could prove to be an expensive generalisation; but, whilst wishing the Tizzards and all who sail therein all the best, the dangers of backing horses on the strength of one run is well documented.

Therefore, Dynaste, who has won four out of his six races over fences and finished second in the other two, lays a less complicated record on the line. This sharp three miles will suit (he is already a winner of the Feltham round here) and although beaten by Cue Card last time, gave the indication of blowing up at Haydock. This is his chance to step into the big time.

Silvianiaco Conti has an each-way chance but surely no more, whilst Riverside Theatre has already achieved one miracle victory this year. Although miracles are popular around Christmas, they are normally carefully rationed.

Last year’s winner, Long Run, is surely similarly dependent on an intervention of divinity. Even the application of blinkers – the last tool at the bottom of the box – look unlikely to help him win one of the most fiercely contested renewals in recent years.

So this is Dynaste’s race to lose. I suspect he will start favourite come the hour, and nominate him as the sole bet on the card.

Those of us in trouble come the last – a Class 3 handicap hurdle run at 3.45 – will need to adjust to the condition, as this race is unlikely to change it for the better. A losing afternoon’s betting is not the best way to end the Christmas holiday I know, but they are the rules players have to accept.

And for those of you watching one or two of the old films over the period; as Scarlett O’ Hara will say at the end of the marathon that is Gone With The Wind: “Tomorrow is Another Day”. Humphrey Bogart will add his tuppence-worth when uttering the immortal, “Here’s Looking At You Kid,” and, “We Will Always Have Paris,” later on Christmas Day, maybe they have a point.

In the meantime, stop now if you would prefer to be spared another seasonal greeting.

No, I can’t bring myself to do it. Have a Happy Dynaste!

SATURDAY DECEMBER 21st

ASCOT TIPS

3.35:

As you would expect for the prize-money, this is a tough handicap with plenty of possibilities.

Nicky Henderson fields two with real chances in the improving Rolling Star and Chatterbox.

Despite Barry Geraghty’s apparent preference for the former, Chatterbox shaped really well last time at Newbury after a well documented setback and could easily turn out to be the better of the two at these weights. Certainly his chance does not need arguing based on last season’s form. He is seen as holding the best chance of those at the top of the weights as improvement from Newbury is likely.

Flaxen Flare probably has a few pounds too many but should run a race.

Fellow Irish raider, City Slicker has to be respected but, with only limited hurdling experience, faces a stiff task against much better company than he has so far encountered.

Dell’ Arca is another dark horse that is raised 8lbs for his Greatwood win and could easily make his presence felt. Of those lurking at the foot of the handicap,

Totalize has been granted an opportunity by the handicapper with a mark of 131. Relative inexperience in such a cut and thrust handicap is something of a concern but he does have a chance at the weights (particularly with Flaxen Flare after a decent effort at last year’s Festival). He should be fit from a recent Flat outing and would surely not be making the journey south if less than match-fit or not carrying a modicum of stable confidence.

Flying in the face of common sense, Chatterbox may lift this, whilst a prominent showing is expected from the stoutly-bred Totalize.

LINGFIELD TIPS

2.35:

It seems fair to say Gatewood has not progressed since a highly encouraging return to action in this country at Doncaster in September.

He is capable of winning this but it is becoming a long time between drinks for him. Sure be thereabouts, he has most to fear from a possibly revitalised Tales Of Grimm, who got no run here last time. Once again the draw has not been kind to Tales Of Grimm, but with a reasonable slice of luck in running he rates a big danger.

CHELTENHAM

FRIDAY DECEMBER 13th

(posted Thursday 5.30pm)

12.30:

All things being equal this looks like a two-horse race. Oscar Whisky made a satisfactory fencing debut here last month in a muddling race won by Tarquin Du Seuil.

As he receives 8lbs from his main rival, Newbury winner Wonderful Charm, it is tempting to believe that may make the difference.

These two are chalk and cheese. Wonderful Charm is more of a chasing type that may lack the class of Oscar Whisky, but there is the small matter of the fences threatening to even the contest out. With bookmakers sure to bet tight, there is little percentage in punters’ favour.

1.05:

It is a struggle to uncover an obviously well-handicapped runner here, although two that have raced in Ireland look to have possibilities. Both Friendly Society and Hit The Headlines have chasing experience and may be capable of better than we have seen.

2.10:

Theatre Guide looks a reasonable selection having put up such a giant effort in the Hennessy a fortnight ago. His claims are obvious and providing the run does not come too soon after his Newbury exertions, he is hard to get away from.

3.45:

The card ends as it starts with a novice event, this time seemingly resting between three candidates in previous winners and therefore penalised: Ballyalton, Doctor Harper and Garde La Victoire.

The last named was very impressive last time at Warwick when sauntering away from previous winner Gone Too Far. There seems no reason why we should not take that run literally, in which case Garde La Victoire is taken to shade what should be an informative event.

SATURDAY

DECEMBER 7th

(posted Friday 5.45pm)

It seems we have made it to the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown without incident. Despite Russia’s best attempt at sabotage via a severe mid-week weather front sweeping in from Siberia, the worst is behind us – at least for now.

Staying with the Soviet theme, as always this is a good meeting full of quality and intrigue, but its twists and turns are possibly more suited to a John Le Carre Cold War novel.

1.50:

Taquin Du Seuil lays Arkle pretensions on the line in the Henry VIII Novice Chase.

A determined winner at Cheltenham last time from Oscar Whisky, he gets a chance to take this next step up the ladder.

Second in this event last year to Captain Conan, Hinterland is certainly useful but has not progressed beyond that standard and threatens to be vulnerable once again.

Grandouet, notably a hurdler, needs to improve his jumping to become competitive in this company, whilst well regarded Balder Succes is hard to assess and could be anything.

One mistake could change the complexion of this but, assuming Taquin Du Seuil jumps with the same aplomb as we saw at Cheltenham last time, he looks like the one to beat.

2.25:

After his latest run in a competitive Cheltenham event won by handicap blot Quick Jack, Deep Trouble looks poised to go one better in this listed handicap. He faces several rivals with progressive profiles but looks sure to run his race.

3.00:

The Tingle Creek should only concern Sire De Grugy and Captain Conan, both of whom have won over fences on this track. Talk of Somersby being able to mix it on these terms at this level has so far proved wide of the mark. The same is likely to be the case again. For some reason Sire De Grugy never looked at ease last time at Cheltenham, risking life and limb with some chancy leaps in the closing stages when second to an on-song Kid Cassidy.

From a stable in form, he has every chance but does have two lengths to find on Captain Conan on their running in the Arkle Trial run at Cheltenham this time last year. It promises to be a tight contest.