an advance look at the Festival

(also appeared on Free Tips page a week ago)

That will be a week tomorrow then. I mean Cheltenham of course. The day jump racing fans have waited for like no other.

Cheltenham is about to emerge from the mists and monsoons of a wet winter. Somehow, despite Nature’s best efforts (or maybe She is toying with us), this little island has not sunk into the sea. There is a glimmer of hope from the clouds. Forecasts indicate the rains are likely to roll away in time for the Festival – although, perhaps to prevent complacency, apparently they will linger this week.

But a week from now, on next Tuesday, the whole carnival begins. The Yellow Brick Road submerged beneath a January and February torrent does in fact lead to a little town in the Cotswolds.

The festival that is Cheltenham turns everyone into an expert – at least beforehand. Pundits everywhere do their best to convince us they know all the answers. There are public forums that consist of racing personalities, actors, politicians and hacks, many of whom are not renowned for being able to tip themselves out of bed, let alone that have reputations as sages capable of spreading their words of wisdom.

I don’t know what it is about the Cheltenham Festival – perhaps it is because it comes at the end of the wretched winter months and all the misery associated with them. The meeting becomes a forest fire of opinion – so much so, if you are not careful it is contagious.

Perhaps this would be a good time for me to put my credentials on the line. Of all the people you could take notice of for the four-day meeting, I should be the last on your list. That is unless of course you want my selections so you may score a neat red line through them. In short my Cheltenham record is abysmal. The last winner I can recall backing was Night Nurse back in the days when computers were all made by IBM and the only mobile phone was one that was hurled from a top storey window in angst. My Cheltenham form figures are worse than those sported by The Mighty Moose.

But, bitter experience aside, how easily we float into the trap! This year will of course be different – won’t it? This year I have an answer or two. Despite the fact the meeting seems to have my measure, this is the year when the worm turns! Even the haphazard law of probability suggests I may be on to something at long last.

So herewith are my selections and thoughts for the Festival. Red pens at the ready:

Tuesday:

With the stands bursting with optimism and enthusiasm, you just have to have a bet/ make a selection in the opening race of the meeting: the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. It looks like it is a straightforward match between England and Ireland in that Irving is the best we have to offer by some way and Vautour is the best from across the water. With them both trading at 3/1 and under, unless a more attractive bet can be found (I can’t see it) that means there is no percentage in playing. You see, already I am a disappointment. But wait … give the boy a chance!

After a snifter of whisky or similar, before we know it they will be lining up for the Arkle. This looks like a race in which we could consider flying in the face of accepted wisdom. Champagne Fever would have looked the part but for his last run when he was beaten eleven lengths by Trifolium who is set to re-oppose now. I suppose we are meant to accept that running is wrong. Somebody somewhere may be able to advance a good argument in support of this; unaware of what it is, I shall oppose both. Similarly, I am unenthusiastic about Rock On Ruby and Dodging Bullets.

In Ruby’s case, I feel winning two novice chases at long odds-on hardly equates to toughing out an Arkle; whilst Dodging Bullets is surely exposed as a decent chaser with limitations.

Therefore how about Valdez who has won three chases over an aggregate of thirty-three lengths and made a mockery of his opposition at Newbury in November. Admittedly his return effort at Doncaster left something to be desired but his stable had been in the doldrums; he still won though, preserving an unbeaten sequence over the larger obstacles in the process. He is likely to strip a better proposition now particularly as his yard is firing on all cylinders. First blood to Valdez…

2.40:

Baylis & Harding sponsor this handicap. My two against the field would be the sound jumper that is Many Clouds and the unexposed Cause Of Causes. I am not going to justify them. After all, I don’t want to look any more of a fool than I may already appear. Small stakes only, but they are worthy of consideration.

On to the Champion Hurdle and, sorry, I don’t know. But the angle for those of you that are using me as the Lord Oaksey of Prestbury Park is to be aware that, gun to head, my selection would be Hurricane Fly.

We have to presume Quevaga – who first won this in 2009 and has refused to let another mare have a look-in since, will once again snaffle the event in honour of David Nicholson. But she is odds-on and backing horses round here at cramped odds is about as appealing as taking up arms in favour of the Ukraine army.

The next race is for amateur riders. Now as far as I am concerned amateur riders and Cheltenham are the equivalent of gin and ginger beer, in that they don’t belong together.

The last race on Day One looks an unappealing handicap.

So Tuesday’s selections are Valdez in the Arkle and Many Clouds and Cause Of Causes in the handicap at 2.40.

Wednesday:

Faugheen looks something of a beast in this opening hurdle and will apparently carry plenty of Irish confidence.

The RSA has me beat. I hope Many Clouds and Cause Of Causes take up easier options in handicaps. So often this develops into a case of last man standing. I am not sure whom that last man may turn out to be.

Oh deep joy, now for the Coral Cup. Okay, just one stab at the bloody thing. What about Vendor. He ran really well in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time after an absence when thought to be in need of the race, and is reasonably treated on his novice form. After the unexpected win of Valdez on the first day, this represents strike two to the Alan King stable. V for Victory in both cases!

The Queen Mother Chase does present us with something of a problem. Unquestionably Sire De Grugy deserves to win it. The trouble is all his best form is on right-handed tracks and his two attempts here have resulted in blanks. Although a decent enough effort in itself, he arguably ran his worst race of the season here in November when looking awkward at times and taking a few liberties with his fences before eventually being beaten by Kid Cassidy.

He was conceding weight and that may still be good enough to provide him with a well-deserved success, but Captain Conan (opposes again) did beat him here in November of 2012 at levels. Those that rubbish this left-hand/ right-hand theory, should remind themselves that Sire De Grugy’s latest racecourse spin was at Plumpton (a left-handed track not too dissimilar in configuration to Cheltenham – although there any similarity ends), so connections must be concerned to a degree. He is the moral winner but one or two doubts remain.

The next event is the Cross Country. Not for me!

The Fred Winter is complicated by possible runners that may develop into non-runners that may instead try their luck in the Triumph. Taken at face value Dawalan looks a worthy favourite, but surely there is something a little more appealing nestling in the middle of the handicap.

With the last race being a bumper, I am pleading the Fifth. So Day Two is potentially quiet for me. One small bet on Vendor in the Coral Cup and it’s a question of retiring to the bar.

Thursday:

With no clear shape of what will and what will not turn up, the first two races [JLT Novices’ Chase and Pertemps Final] are difficult to unravel at this stage. However the Ryanair presents Dynaste with a solid opportunity to recover the winning thread. Prior to the King George, he had not been out of the first two in his efforts over fences, which included an excellent second at last year’s Festival to Benefficient in the Jewson.

His tame showing at Kempton was explained by a pulled muscle so those prepared to overlook that run are looking at a horse capable of mixing it at the highest level. With Al Ferof viewed as a beatable opponent and Cue Card earmarked for the Gold Cup, Dynaste gets his chance to return to his best in what is seen as a winnable race.

The decision to point Annie Power at the World Hurdle means Big Buck’s faces potentially his toughest opponent in a long while at a time when he may be at his most vulnerable. Now eleven, what was already looking like a serious test for Big Buck’s now threatens to present him with a crown-removing ceremony. This is a tough line-up; the inclusion of the unbeaten mare means she is a safer option and she looks the answer. Stamina does not look like an issue and given her powerful connections have obvious confidence in her ability to see out the trip she is hard to oppose.

The card disappears into the distance with a couple of impossible looking handicaps at this stage. So we exit Thursday with Dynaste and Annie Power seen as the two bets likely to take us forward to the final encounter.

Friday starts as always with the Triumph Hurdle.

Calipto lines up with the best current form on offer from the home team. However this is often a lottery of an event and confidence is limited. If there is an interesting contender it is surely one-time favourite Royal Irish Hussar who, prior to blotting his copybook at Doncaster in December when it appeared something was amiss, had looked like the possible winner of this. Does anyone know what happened that day? If there is a tangible reason for his sudden eclipse when odds-on and fading tamely, having already beaten Guitar Pete over this course and now lining up at double the price, he could easily represent value.

The Gold Cup looks like a virtual re-run of last year’s event as the two principals once again appear to be Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti. Both are young enough and have been sufficiently conservatively campaigned to return in top form. It is entirely possible Silviniaco Conti will gain revenge for that unfortunate top-of-the-hill error last year. Cue Card has yet to convince he will stay this far and Last Instalment appears to have a little to find. At this stage a watching brief seems the best option.

So the final day looks knotty right now. Things may be clearer when we have a better idea of the runners in the handicaps.

On the week, the horses to avoid, or have a second look at from this beleaguered quarter are:

VALDEZ
MANY CLOUDS – CAUSE OF CAUSES
VENDOR
DYNASTE
ANNIE POWER