LIFE IS A GAMBLE …

The clue is in the title.

It is called gambling after all.

Those of us that try to minimise risk cannot hide behind formbooks or talk tactics on the phone forever. Although a professional approach to betting means you can severely reduce the risk you take, it is still prevalent in any transaction that involves a degree of gambling. Eventually, if you are to play, you have to walk the high wire without a safety net.

Most cutting-edge decisions necessitate an informed gamble. Buying a house, a car – even choosing a life partner contains an element of uncertainty. A surgeon once told me that they are not immune, considering themselves to be in the risk business.

If you wait for the perfect bet you will be waiting for a long time; and when you think you have unearthed it, chances are the selection in question will be 1/3.

As we all know, no one ever made a living backing horses – or anything else – at that sort of price.

So, after all the preliminary work and scrutiny, if we are to put our money down, we have to take a chance – become risk-takers. And as soon as we do that, the game changes. No longer the careful calculating analyst, we become a gambler, a punter that is at the whim of Fortune.

Those backing Sky Lantern in the Nassau at Goodwood on Saturday were required to do just that.

There were plenty of reasons to suppose Sky Lantern would win. For a start, she was the best horse in the race. Elusive Kate had endorsed the Falmouth form and, as a strong traveller, there was every possibility that Sky Lantern would stay the extra yardage. The price of 2/1 – or 7/4 at the death – was of course wrong, but if you had a strong view – did that matter?

Every horse, every proposition in life has its price. However, it is rarely unequivocally correct. Prices are a reflection of opinion. The only variance is the worth of those expressing such an opinion. When using market forces as a guide, such opinion succumbs to supply and demand.

There comes a point when layers will yield to weight of money even if it transgresses their own views; similarly, punters often have to accept their price is no longer relevant in the grand scheme of things. It is always possible that both sides on this particular divide can be mistaken.

Therefore, if you thought Sky Lantern was a 7/2 chance to win the Nassau, were you justified in taking half those odds? Without being emphatic, the answer has to be – not really. The negatives obviously were the trip and the fact that as a filly, particularly after a busy season at the highest level, there was always the chance she would underperform. Then there were the logistics of winning from a high draw and the general problems associated with races run at the helter-skelter track this is Goodwood. But trying to quantify the odds of possible eventualities before the race is not an exact science. It has to be accepted that prices arrived at by both layers and players are open to interpretation.

Therefore, a price of 7/2 Sky Lantern probably swung too far in the favour of the punter – her final SP of 7/4, too far in the favour of the bookmaker. Of course, when it all boils down to liquid in the stew, what really matters is the result.

To that end, the race made painful viewing. Having walked on water all week, Richard Hughes may have found his own strike rate intoxicating.

A great jockey with such a perfect style that makes it all look silky smooth and easy, for a moment down the straight, he had the chance to remain in the clear on the outside, but chose instead to head for cover back in the pack, therefore riding into trouble that even he could not overcome.

In fairness, this is the sudden death dilemma jockeys face each riding day. Unlike the majority of mortals, they do not have the luxury of considered opinion. Their business demands instant decision-making. They are applauded when right, castigated when wrong.

I have no idea if Richard Hughes is being criticised by others for his ride on Sky Lantern. If he is, after all his triumphs this week, that is a shame. And in his defence, the filly did not look quite as bouncy as she had in previous races this year.

It is possible she remembered the whip that flew across her face last time and that Richard Hughes opted to shuffle her back in the pack to galvanise an interest he felt was on the wane.

Unfortunately, she hesitated for a fatal stride before committing and the race was lost in an instant. Whatever the reason, it is true to suppose we did not see the Sky Lantern we had seen at Newmarket, The Curragh or Royal Ascot.

Returning to any pre-race appraisal made: if you considered Sky Lantern likely to win and made her winning chance 7/2, is it reasonable to make her a lay because she trades at 7/4? It is my contention that it is not. If the win price fails to meet your criteria, surely the answer is not to bet. To turn all your logic on its head and make the filly a lay mocks your opinion. Some gamblers are price-driven, most of us are to a degree, but surely, your assessment stands whether or not you actually pull up your money.

You do have to let winners win in this business, just as you have to be grateful when a horse you did fancy but failed to back for whatever reason is beaten.

To use a high street analogy: buying a sales bargain you never wear is pointless; having the best value wardrobe in the country that never sees the light of day means those supposed bargains were a waste of money. If you want a Hugo Boss suit, it is probably best to pay the market price for it.

Sometimes you just have to play the odds even if they fail to come up to your expectations.

Those backing J Wonder at Newmarket were hardly rejoicing when they saw the morning line. However, armed with the knowledge they were backing a strongly fancied horse, were rewarded by the courage of their convictions when watching it burst clear.